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Growth of GRP in Chinese Provinces. A Test for Spatial Spillovers

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  • Krister Sandberg

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    Abstract

    This paper examines the provincial pattern of growth in China during the period 1985–2000, testing the hypothesis that provinces with similar growth rates are more spatially clustered than would be expected by chance. The provincial economic growth is explained by the distribution of industrial enterprises, foreign direct investment, infrastructure, and governmental preferential policies. The neoclassical hypothesis of convergence is also tested. Indications of unconditional convergence does occur during the periods 1985–2000 and 1985–1990. In addition, conditional convergence is found during the sub-period 1990–1995. Evidence of spatial dependence between adjacent provinces has also been established, and in the econometric part, solved by a spatial lag, or alternatively a spatial error term, in the growth equation. Keywords: GRP-growth, Chinese provinces, Spatial dependence Classification [JEL]: O18, R11, R12

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa04p596.

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    Date of creation: Aug 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa04p596

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    1. Christopher H. Wheeler, 2001. "A Note on the Spatial Correlation Structure of County-Level Growth in the U.S," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 433-449.
    2. Yao, S. & Zhang, Z., 1999. "Regional Growth in Chine under Economic Reforms," Papers 124, Portsmouth University - Department of Economics.
    3. Esther Vaya Valcarce & Enrique Lopez Bazo & Rosina Moreno Serrano & Jordi Surinach Caralt, 2000. "Growth and externalities across economies. An empirical analysis using spatial econometrics," Working Papers in Economics 59, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    4. Chen, Jian & Fleisher, Belton M., 1996. "Regional Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 141-164, April.
    5. Frans Bal & Peter Nijkamp, 1997. "Exogenous and Endogenous Spatial Growth Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-022/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Demurger, Sylvie, 2001. "Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth: An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-117, March.
    7. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1994. "Regional Cohesion: Evidence and Theories of Regional Growth and Convergence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Xiaowen Tian, 1999. "Market Orientation and Regional Economic Disparities in China," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 161-172.
    9. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
    10. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1963. "On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    12. Sergio Rey & Brett Montouri, 1999. "US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 143-156.
    13. Swan, Trevor W, 2002. "Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 375-80, December.
    14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "Spatial effects and Verdoorn law in the Portuguese context," MPRA Paper 32183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "Spatial effects and convergence theory in the Portuguese situation," MPRA Paper 32185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten & Libman, Alexander & Yu, Xiaofan, 2014. "Economic integration in China: Politics and culture," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 470-492.

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