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Markov or not Markov - this should be a question

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  • Bode, Eckhardt

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  • Bickenbach, Frank

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Abstract

Although it is well known that Markov process theory, frequently applied in the literature on income convergence, imposes some very restrictive assumptions upon the data generating process, these assumptions have generally been taken for granted so far. The present paper proposes, resp. recalls chi-square tests of the Markov property, of spatial independence, and of homogeneity across time and space to assess the reliability of estimated Markov transition matrices. As an illustration we show that the evolution of the income distribution across the 48 coterminous U.S. states from 1929 to 2000 clearly has not followed a Markov process.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa02p024.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p024

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  1. Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. de la Fuente, Angel, 1995. "The Empirics of Growth and Convergence: A Selective Review," CEPR Discussion Papers 1275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-32, December.
  5. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
  6. Magrini, Stefano, 1999. "The evolution of income disparities among the regions of the European Union," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-281, March.
  7. Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
  8. Damien Neven & Claudine Gouymte, 1995. "Regional Convergence in the European Community," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 47-65, 03.
  9. Bernard Fingleton, 2000. "Convergence: International comparisons based on a simultaneous equation model with regional effects," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 285-305.
  10. Eckhardt Bode, 2001. "Is Regional Innovative Activity Path-dependent? An Empirical Analysis for Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1058, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  11. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Sergio J. Rey, 2001. "Spatial Dependence in the Evolution of Regional Income Distributions," Urban/Regional 0105001, EconWPA.
  13. Keller, Wolfgang, 1997. "How trade patterns and technology flows affect productivity growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1831, The World Bank.
  14. Bulli, Sandra, 2001. "Distribution Dynamics and Cross-Country Convergence: A New Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 226-43, May.
  15. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  16. Bode, Eckhardt, 1998. "Lokale Wissensdiffusion und regionale Divergenz in Deutschland," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1038, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  17. Fingleton, Bernard, 1997. "Specification and Testing of Markov Chain Models: An Application to Convergence in the European Union," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 385-403, August.
  18. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Paul Bishop & Peter Gripaios, 2006. "Earnings convergence in UK counties: a distribution dynamics approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 29-33.
  2. Paul David & Francesco Rullani, 2007. "Dynamics of Innovation in an “Open Source” Collaboration Environment: Lurking, Laboring and Launching FLOSS Projects on SourceForge," Discussion Papers 07-022, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  3. Sabino da Silva Porto Junior & Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro, 2003. "Dinâmica Espacial da Renda Per capita e Crescimento Entre os Municípios da Região Nordeste do Brasil - uma Análise Markoviana," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] e54, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  4. Paul A. David & Francesco Rullani, 2006. "Micro-dynamics of Free and Open Source Software Development. Lurking, laboring and launching new projects on SourceForge," LEM Papers Series 2006/26, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  5. Alejandro Rodriguez Caro & Santiago Rodriguez Feijoó & Carlos Gonzalez Correa, 2005. "Markov Chain approach to Purchasing Power Convergence in the 15 European Union," ERSA conference papers ersa05p457, European Regional Science Association.
  6. Aroca, Patricio & Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William F., 2005. "Spatial dimensions of trade liberalization and economic convergence : Mexico 1985-2002," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3744, The World Bank.

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