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Markov or not Markov - this should be a question

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Author Info
Bode, Eckhardt ()
Bickenbach, Frank ()

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Abstract

Although it is well known that Markov process theory, frequently applied in the literature on income convergence, imposes some very restrictive assumptions upon the data generating process, these assumptions have generally been taken for granted so far. The present paper proposes, resp. recalls chi-square tests of the Markov property, of spatial independence, and of homogeneity across time and space to assess the reliability of estimated Markov transition matrices. As an illustration we show that the evolution of the income distribution across the 48 coterminous U.S. states from 1929 to 2000 clearly has not followed a Markov process.

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Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa02p024.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa02p024

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. de la Fuente, Angel, 1997. "The empirics of growth and convergence: A selective review," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 23-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gouyette, Claudine & Neven, Damien J, 1994. "Regional Convergence in the European Community," CEPR Discussion Papers 914, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bulli, Sandra, 2001. "Distribution Dynamics and Cross-Country Convergence: A New Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 226-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Sergio J. Rey, 2001. "Spatial Dependence in the Evolution of Regional Income Distributions," Urban/Regional 0105001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Keller, Wolfgang, 2000. "Do Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth?," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 17-47, January.
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  10. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  13. Bernard Fingleton, 2000. "Convergence: international comparisons based on a simultaneous equation model with regional effects," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 285-305, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Eckhardt Bode, 2001. "Is Regional Innovative Activity Path-dependent? An Empirical Analysis for Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1058, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  15. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-32, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Fingleton, Bernard, 1997. "Specification and Testing of Markov Chain Models: An Application to Convergence in the European Union," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 385-403, August.
  17. Magrini, Stefano, 1999. "The evolution of income disparities among the regions of the European Union," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-281, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sabino da Silva Porto Junior & Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro, 2003. "Dinâmica Espacial da Renda Per capita e Crescimento Entre os Municípios da Região Nordeste do Brasil - uma Análise Markoviana," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] e54, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paul Bishop & Peter Gripaios, 2006. "Earnings convergence in UK counties: a distribution dynamics approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 29-33, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alejandro Rodriguez Caro & Santiago Rodriguez Feijoó & Carlos Gonzalez Correa, 2005. "Markov Chain approach to Purchasing Power Convergence in the 15 European Union," ERSA conference papers ersa05p457, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  4. Paul A. David & Francesco Rullani, 2006. "Micro-dynamics of Free and Open Source Software Development. Lurking, laboring and launching new projects on SourceForge," LEM Papers Series 2006/26, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Matthias Türck, 2006. "Convergence of EU-Regions. A Literature Report," Discussion Papers in Economics 80/06, University of Kassel, Institute of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Aroca, Patricio & Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William F., 2005. "Spatial dimensions of trade liberalization and economic convergence : Mexico 1985-2002," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3744, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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