Turkey: Slowdown? Or even recession?
AbstractThe growth of Turkey's economy was over 10% year-on-year in some quarters of the period 2010-2011. It may have decelerated recently, but it is not yet certain that this will lead to a more or less soft type of ‘landing’; a swift resumption of growth is feasible. In 2011, thanks to high real growth and a rate of inflation between 5% and 10%, growing budget revenues offered a nice opportunity to increase expenditures and decrease the budget deficit at the same time. This 'pro-active' fiscal policy will continue. The central bank, too, supports GDP expansion by keeping the policy rate low. However, this job is a bit tricky. The rate of inflation should not climb over 10%, and the exchange rate should remain rather stable. The high deficit in the current account is a main source of vulnerability. In the case of no major adverse external shock, growth is likely to accelerate again in 2013-2014.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw in its series wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts with number 9-TR.
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as wiiw Current Analyses and Forecasts
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-04-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2012-04-23 (Arab World)
- NEP-CWA-2012-04-23 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-MAC-2012-04-23 (Macroeconomics)
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