Potential Trade in Southeast Europe: A Gravity Model Approach
AbstractThis paper estimates a classical gravity model for trade on aggregate trade volumes between OECD and transition countries. The results are used to analyse and make projections on trade flows into and out of Southeast European countries following scenarios on potential GDP levels and possible membership of institutions. Alternative variables are also tested, namely transport times instead of geographical distance, and GDP in PPP instead of nominal. Replacing distance with transport times does not lead to great improvements in the model's performance. The use of GDP at PPP is presented mainly to try to deal with specific situations where local prices prevail. The striking feature that emerges in Southeast Europe is of flows of extreme values, in some cases far below, but in others far above, what classical gravity model estimates show. The main conclusion is that Southeast Europe can no longer be viewed as a region from the point of view of aggregate trade flows.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw in its series The wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers with number 011.
Date of creation: Dec 2001
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as The wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Paper, December 2001
Other versions of this item:
- Edward Christie, 2002. "Potential Trade in Southeast Europe: a Gravity Model Approach," wiiw Working Papers 21, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003.
"Disintegration and Trade,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2001. "Disintegration and Trade," LICOS Discussion Papers 9901, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Jan Fidrmuc, 2000. "Disintegration and Trade," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 353, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2000. "Disintegration and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2641, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Disintegration and trade," ZEI Working Papers B 24-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Fritz Breuss & Peter Egger, 1999. "How Reliable Are Estimations of East-West Trade Potentials Based on Cross-Section Gravity Analyses?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 81-94, June.
- I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2004.
"Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration,"
1999-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
- Antonis Adam & James McHugh & Theodora Kosma, 2003. "Trade Liberalization Strategies: What Could South Eastern Europe Learn From CEFTA and BFTA?," IMF Working Papers 03/239, International Monetary Fund.
- Mojsoska-Blazevski, Nikica & Petreski, Marjan, 2010. "Western Balkan’s trade with the EU and CEFTA-2006: Evidence from Macedonian data," MPRA Paper 41942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dascalescu, Virgil & Nicolae, Elena & Ion, Irina, 2010. "New Findings on Actual and Potential Trade between Romania and the Russian Federation: A Gravity Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 102-124, December.
- repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:105:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
- Miran, Bülent & Atış, Ela & Bektaş, Zerrin & Salalı, Ece & Cankurt, Murat, 2013. "An Analysis of International Raisin Trade: A Gravity Model Approach," 2013 Conference (57th), February 5-8, 2013, Sydney, Australia 152200, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Edward Christie, 2004. "Trade Flows in Southeast Europe," The wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 059, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Mili Roy & Md. Israt Rayhan, 2011. "Trade Flows of Bangladesh: A Gravity Model Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 950-959.
- Vladimir Gligorov & Mario Holzner & Michael Landesmann, 2003.
"Prospects for Further (South) Eastern EU Enlargement: Form Divergence to Convergence?,"
The wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers
030, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Vladimir Gligorov & Mario Holzner & Michael Landesmann, 2003. "Prospects for Further (South-) Eastern EU Enlargement: from Divergence to Convergence?," wiiw Research Reports 296, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Mario Holzner, 2004. "GSIM Measurement of the Costs of Protection in Southeast Europe," The wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 055, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Maria Paula Fontoura & Enrique Martínez-Galán & Isabel Proença, 2006.
"Trade Potential in an Enlarged European Union: A Recent Approach,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2006/08, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Enrique Martínez-Galán & Maria-Paula Fontoura & Isabel Proença, 2005. "Trade Potential In An Enlarged European Union: A Recent Approach," International Trade 0508011, EconWPA.
- Balasan, Andrei-Cristian, 2012. "Literature review concerning the relationship between globalization and regionalization in the world economy," MPRA Paper 39746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Amita Batra, 2006. "India's Global Trade Potential: The Gravity Model Approach," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 327-361.
- Jože P. Damijan & José De Sousa & Olivier Lamotte, 2006. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization in South-Eastern European Countries," The wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 070, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- repec:nrb:wpaper:nrbwp192013 is not listed on IDEAS
- Bussière, Matthieu & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Schnatz, Bernd, 2005.
"Trade integration of Central and Eastern European countries: lessons from a gravity model,"
Working Paper Series
0545, European Central Bank.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Schnatz, Bernd & Bussière, Matthieu, 2005. "Trade Integration of Central and Eastern European Countries: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Working Papers 105, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Vassilis Monastiriotis, 2008. "Quo Vadis Southeast Europe? EU Accession, Regional Cooperation and the need for a Balkan Development Strategy," GreeSE â Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 10, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
- Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur, 2005. "The Determinants of Bangladesh's Trade: Evidence from the Generalized Gravity Model," Working Papers 3, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Kaminski, Bartlomiej & de la Rocha, Manuel, 2003. "Stabilization and association process in the Banlkans : integration options and their assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3108, The World Bank.
- Will Bartlett, 2009. "Regional integration and free-trade agreements in the Balkans: opportunities, obstacles and policy issues," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 25-46, May.
- Sklias, Pantelis & Tsampra, Maria, 2011. "Assessing regional integration and business potential in the Western Balkans," MPRA Paper 36341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Olivier Lamotte, 2003. "Disintegration and trade in South-eastern Europe," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04031, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Customer service).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.