Aggregate Trading Behavior of Technical Models and the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate
AbstractThe study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen/dollar exchange rate. The paper shows first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 1999, and then that the aggregate transactions and positions of technical models exert an excess demand pressure on currency markets since they are mostly at the same side of the market. When technical models produce trading signals they are either buying or selling; when they maintain open positions they are either long or short. A strong interaction prevails between exchange rate movements and the transactions triggered by technical models. An initial rise of the exchange rate due to news, e.g., is systematically lengthened through a sequence of technical buy signals.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by WIFO in its series WIFO Working Papers with number 294.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 08 Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Exchange rate; Technical Trading; Speculation; Heterogeneous Agents;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-08-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2007-08-27 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2007-08-27 (Monetary Economics)
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- Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
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