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Does Complexity Matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism

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  • Egon Smeral

    (WIFO)

  • Michael Wüger

    (WIFO)

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  • Egon Smeral & Michael Wüger, 2004. "Does Complexity Matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism," WIFO Working Papers 225, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2004:i:225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
    2. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Hallin, Marc & Forni, Mario, 2000. "Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 2400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Lahiri,Kajal & Moore,Geoffrey H. (ed.), 1993. "Leading Economic Indicators," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438582.
    5. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, March.
    6. L. Turner & N. Kulendran & H. Fernando, 1997. "The Use of Composite National Indicators for Tourism Forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 3(4), pages 309-317, December.
    7. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, December.
    8. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1599-1619.
    9. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    10. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
    11. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Jaume Rossello-Nadal, 2001. "Forecasting Turning Points in International Visitor Arrivals in the Balearic Islands," Tourism Economics, , vol. 7(4), pages 365-380, December.
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