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Capital Inflows, Household Debt And The Boom Bust Cycle In Estonia

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  • Zuzana Brixiova

    ()

  • Laura Vartia

    ()

  • Andreas Woergoetter

    ()

Abstract

From 2000 to 2007, Estonia was one of the fastest growing emerging market economies. A housing boom, fuelled by capital inflows and credit, resulted in skyrocketing house prices and an over-expanded construction sector. However, the currency board limited the Bank of Estonia’s ability to curb credit growth, while the fiscal policy framework amplified the cycle through pro-cyclical spending increases and tax cuts. As credit was mostly financed by cross-border loans from foreign banks, the risks of disruptions to credit flows and financial contagion have increased. Some have already materialised through tightened lending standards and capital outflows. Estonia is now in a severe recession. To restore high and sustainable growth, the country will need to rebalance its resources from non-tradables towards exports. Regaining external competitiveness will be challenging, however, given the fixed exchange rate and recent devaluations in partner countries. Flexibility of the economy will thus be crucial. Over the medium term, policymakers could also strengthen incentives for a better functioning of the housing finance market and gradually remove the pro-cyclical bias of fiscal policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp965.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2009-965

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Keywords: capital inflows; credit; household debt; boom-bust cycle; Estonia;

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References

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  1. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Pascal Jacquinot & Marcin Kolasa, 2011. "Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 79, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  2. Sandrine Levasseur, 2011. "Labour market adjustments in Estonia during the global crisis," Sciences Po publications 2011-25, Sciences Po.
  3. Josef C. Brada & Trajko Slaveski, 2012. "Transition in a Bubble Economy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(S4), pages 7-13, November.
  4. Gedeon Shirley, 2010. "The Political Economy of Currency Boards: Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, De Gruyter Open, vol. 5(2), pages 7-20, November.
  5. Jaan Masso & Jaanika Meriküll & Priit Vahter, 2011. "Gross profit taxation versus distributed profit taxation and firm perfomance : effects of Estonia,s corporate income tax reform," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2011-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 27 Apr 2011.
  6. Jaan Masso & K. Espenberg & Anu Masso & I. Mierina & Kaia Philips, 2013. "GINI Country Report: Growing Inequalities and their Impacts in the Baltic States Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania," GINI Country Reports baltics, AIAS, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies.
  7. Ardo Hansson & Martti Randveer, 2013. "Economic adjustment in the Baltic Countries," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-1, Bank of Estonia.
  8. Sandrine Levasseur, 2011. "labour markets adjustments in Estonia during the global crisis," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-25, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  9. Ivo Karilaid & Tõnn Talpsepp, 2010. "Can policy improve liquidity during a financial crisis?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 5-26, December.
  10. Anne Lauringson, 2011. "Unemployment Benefits In A Period Of Crisis: The Effect On Unemployment Duration," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 82, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
  11. A. Bethlendi, 2011. "Policy measures and failures on foreign currency household lending in central and eastern Europe," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 61(2), pages 193-223, June.
  12. Christophe André, 2010. "A Bird's Eye View of OECD Housing Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 746, OECD Publishing.
  13. Sandrine LEVASSEUR, 2012. "Labour market adjustments in Estonia during the 2008/2011 crisis," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 123-143, June.
  14. Masso, Jaan & Meriküll, Jaanika & Vahter, Priit, 2013. "Shift from gross profit taxation to distributed profit taxation: Are there effects on firms?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1092-1105.
  15. Jaan Masso & Kerly Krillo, 2011. "Labour Markets In The Baltic States During The Crisis 2008-2009: The Effect On Different Labour Market Groups," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 79, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).

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