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Testing Creditor Moral Hazard in Sovereign Bond Markets: A Unified Theoretical Approach and Empirical Evidence

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  • Ay?e Y. Evrensel
  • Ali M. Kutan

Abstract

This paper critically evaluates the existing empirical literature on creditor moral hazard in sovereign bond markets, proposes a unified theoretical approach to test for IMF-induced creditor moral hazard, and provides empirical evidence, using daily sovereign bond market spreads of Indonesia and Korea. The results suggest that IMF-related news regarding program negotiations and approval may be associated with creditor moral hazard, but their impact on spreads is short-lived, indicating that creditor moral hazard could be best described as a short-run phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Ay?e Y. Evrensel & Ali M. Kutan, 2004. "Testing Creditor Moral Hazard in Sovereign Bond Markets: A Unified Theoretical Approach and Empirical Evidence," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-665, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2004-665
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William R. Cline, 1995. "International Debt Reexamined," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 46, October.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "IMF-related news and emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1126-1142, November.
    7. Mr. Steven T Phillips & Mr. Timothy D. Lane, 2000. "Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard?," IMF Working Papers 2000/168, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Steven B. Kamin, 2002. "Identifying the role of moral hazard in international financial markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 736, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    12. Evrensel, Ayse Y., 2002. "Effectiveness of IMF-supported stabilization programs in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 565-587, October.
    13. Ali M. Kutan & Ayse Y. Evrensel, 2004. "Creditor Moral Hazard in Equity Markets: A Theoretical Framework and Evidence from Indonesia and Korea," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-659, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bratis, Theodoros & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2015. "Creditor moral hazard during the EMU debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 122-135.
    2. Zuccardi Huertas Igor Esteban, 2015. "Sovereign Spreads in the Eurozone: Is Market Discipline Working?," Working Papers 2015-20, Banco de México.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Creditor moral hazard; financial markets; the IMF; and news;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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