Creditor Moral Hazard in Equity Markets: A Theoretical Framework and Evidence from Indonesia and Korea
AbstractThis paper expands on the work of Sarno and Taylor (1999) and develops three alternative models in which creditor moral hazard might occur in equity markets under different assumptions regarding the existence of asset market bubbles and implicit guarantees. Incorporating IMF-related news associated with the own country and with other countries to our models, we are able to predict the expected change in investor behavior and its effect on stock returns. Using daily stock returns for Indonesia and Korea, we test the ability of the models to predict the expected changes in stock returns on the days of IMF-related news such as program negotiations and program approval. Our results regarding Korea and, to a lesser extent, Indonesia are consistent with the creditor moral hazard models that assume implicit guarantees and asset price bubbles. Our results show that, if there is creditor moral hazard in equity markets, its duration could be measured only by days, suggesting that creditor moral hazard is a short-term phenomenon.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 2004-659.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2004
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Creditor moral hazard; financial markets; the IMF; and news;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-05-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2004-05-09 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2004-05-09 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-SEA-2004-05-09 (South East Asia)
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