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On the long-run determinants of real exchange rates for developing countries : Evidence from Africa, Latin America and Asia

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  • Imed Drine

    ()

  • Christophe Rault

    ()

Abstract

The main goal of this paper is to tackle the empirical issues of the real exchange rate litterature by applying recently developed panel cointegration techniques to a structural long-run real exchange rate equation. We consider here a sample of 45 developing countries, divided into three groups according to geographical criteria: Africa, Latin America and Asia. Our investigations confirm that having a reference to assess the degree of distortion of real exchange rate is not as simple as it can be thought with the PPP concept. The real exchange rate is e?ectively at the centre of an economic spiral and its value depends on the economic specificities of each country. In other words, we don’t have a fixed and general norm but, for each economy, the real exchange rate trajectory depends on its development level, on the way economic policy is conducted, and on its position on the international market.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 2003-571.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 08 May 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2003-571

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Keywords: Real exchange rate; Developing country;

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References

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  1. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert, 1997. "Why the Euro will be Strong: an Approach Based on Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1997-18, CEPII research center.
  2. Quah, D., 1993. "Exploiting Cross Section Variation for Unit Root Inference in Dynamic Data," Papers 549, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  3. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
  4. Sebastion Edwards, 1988. "Real and Monetary Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Behavior: Theory and Evidence from Developing Countries," UCLA Economics Working Papers 506, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  6. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, 1st quart.
  7. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of It," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Brian Kahn, 1998. "Determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 1997-16, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  9. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
  10. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Soto, Raimundo, 1994. "Capital flows and long-term equilibrium real exchange rates in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1306, The World Bank.
  11. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2003. "Do panel data permit the rescue of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis for Latin American countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 351-359.
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Cited by:
  1. Jesús Ferreyra & Jorge Salas, 2006. "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Peru: BEER Models and Confidence Band Building," Working Papers 2006-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  2. Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Working Papers 0811, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  3. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Kaltani, Linda & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2007. "Post-conflict aid, real exchange rate adjustment, and catch-up growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4187, The World Bank.
  4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Financial Integration: A Dynamic GMM Panel Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3645, CESifo Group Munich.

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