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Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents

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  • Pietro Dindo
  • Cees Diks

Abstract

In this paper we study the properties of an asset pricing model where boundedly rational agents respond to incoming news about economic fundamentals such as future dividends. Our aim is to characterize the resulting fluctuations of the market price around the time-varying underlying fundamental value. The starting point is an asset market in which agents can choose among two different degrees of information regarding future dividends. At the same time agents also try to learn the growth rate of the dividend generating process. Their interaction leads to prices that deviate perpetually from the fundamental value in the short run but stay close to it in the long run. In particular, prices exhibit time-varying nonlinear mean reversion, with parameters determined by the learning process.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Warwick Business School, Finance Group in its series Working Papers with number wp07-06.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wbs:wpaper:wp07-06

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Yi Xue & Ramazan Gencay, 2009. "Hierarchical Information and the Rate of Information Diffusion," Working Paper Series 29_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  2. Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2010. "Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1215-1222.
  3. Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  4. Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2014. "Real and financial interacting oscillators: a behavioral macro-model with animal spirits," Working Papers 268, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
  5. Marc de Kamps & Daniel Ladley & Aistis Simaitis, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs in Over-The-Counter Markets," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/03, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Sep 2013.
  6. De Grauwe, Paul & Rovira Kaltwasser, Pablo, 2012. "Animal spirits in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1176-1192.
  7. Michele Berardi, 2008. "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: learning and predictor choice dynamics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 104, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  8. Goldbaum, David & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2010. "Learning and adaptation's impact on market efficiency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 635-653, December.
  9. Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  10. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Heterogeneous speculators, endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets: A model of stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-764, April.
  11. Valentyn Panchenko & Sergiy Gerasymchuk & Oleg V. Pavlov, 2013. "Asset Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Local Network Interactions," Discussion Papers 2013-18, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  12. Panchenko, Valentyn & Gerasymchuk, Sergiy & Pavlov, Oleg V., 2013. "Asset price dynamics with heterogeneous beliefs and local network interactions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2623-2642.

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