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Properties of Optimal Forecasts under Asymmetric Loss and Nonlinearity

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  • Allan Timmermann
  • Andrew Patton

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File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/research/wfri/rsrchcentres/ferc/wrkingpaprseries/fwp04-05.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Warwick Business School, Finance Group in its series Working Papers with number wp04-05.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wbs:wpaper:wp04-05

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References

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  1. Chesher, Andrew & Irish, Margaret, 1987. "Residual analysis in the grouped and censored normal linear model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 33-61.
  2. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Optimal prediction under asymmetric loss," Working Papers 97-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Sentana, E., 1997. "Least Squares Predictions and Mean-Variance Analysis," Papers 9711, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  4. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-27, July.
  5. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 2003. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 657-665, 07.
  6. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 353-381, October.
  7. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Optimal Forecast Combination Under General Loss Functions and Forecast Error Distributions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt15r9t2q2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  8. Clive W.J. Granger, 1999. "Outline of forecast theory using generalized cost functions," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 161-173.
  9. Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1996. "Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection under Asymmetric Loss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 561-71, Sept.-Oct.
  10. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs, 2003. "The Importance of the Loss Function in Option Valuation," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-52, CIRANO.
  11. Magnus, J.R. & Pesaran, B., 1991. "The bias of forecasts from a first-order autoregression," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153230, Tilburg University.
  12. Magnus, Jan R. & Pesaran, Bahram, 1991. "The Bias of Forecasts from a First-Order Autoregression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 222-235, June.
  13. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  15. Spyros Skouras, 2001. "Decisionmetrics: A Decision-Based Approach to Econometric Modeling," Working Papers 01-11-064, Santa Fe Institute.
  16. Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik, 1989. "Forecasting international growth rates using Bayesian shrinkage and other procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 183-202, January.
  17. Magnus, Jan R. & Pesaran, Bahram, 1989. "The exact multi-period mean-square forecast error for the first-order autoregressive model with an intercept," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 157-179, October.
  18. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renault, Eric & Trognon, Alain, 1987. "Generalised residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-32.
  19. Magnus, J.R. & Pesaran, B., 1989. "The exact multi-period mean-square forecast error for the first-order autoregressive model with an intercept," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153226, Tilburg University.
  20. Hoque, Asraul & Magnus, Jan R. & Pesaran, Bahram, 1988. "The exact multi-period mean-square forecast error for the first-order autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 327-346, November.
  21. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
  22. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  23. Batchelor, Roy & Peel, David A., 1998. "Rationality testing under asymmetric loss," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 49-54, October.
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