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Event-related GARCH: the impact of stock dividends in Turkey

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  • Ismail Orgakcioglu
  • Roy Batchelor

Abstract

Cash dividends and rights issues on the Istanbul Stock Exchange are commonly accompanied by large stock dividend payments. This paper tests the proposition that stock dividends have no effect on company value, using a novel GARCH process with event-related intercept terms to capture induced changes in the volatility of stock prices. Returns rise in advance of stock dividend payments, but this effect becomes statistically insignificant when proper allowance is made for heteroscedasticity. Volatility rises after stock dividend payments, and this is attributed to persistence following exceptionally large price movements around the ex-dividend day, rather than to any transitory rise in the unconditional returns variance. The study does document some irrationality in responses to cash dividends, with prices rising/falling after increased/decreased dividend payments, rather than after the much earlier dividend announcements.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Warwick Business School, Finance Group in its series Working Papers with number wp02-02.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wbs:wpaper:wp02-02

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  1. Ohlson, James A. & Penman, Stephen H., 1985. "Volatility increases subsequent to stock splits: An empirical aberration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 251-266, June.
  2. Lakonishok, Josef & Lev, Baruch, 1987. " Stock Splits and Stock Dividends: Why, Who, and When," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 913-32, September.
  3. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  4. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
  5. Harris, Lawrence E, 1994. "Minimum Price Variations, Discrete Bid-Ask Spreads, and Quotation Sizes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 149-78.
  6. Grinblatt, Mark S. & Masulis, Ronald W. & Titman, Sheridan, 1984. "The valuation effects of stock splits and stock dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 461-490, December.
  7. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
  9. Akgiray, Vedat, 1989. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 55-80, January.
  10. Giorgio De Santis & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 1994. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Sheikh, Aamir M, 1989. " Stock Splits, Volatility Increases, and Implied Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1361-72, December.
  12. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Masumeci, Jim & Poulsen, Annette B., 1991. "Event-study methodology under conditions of event-induced variance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 253-272, December.
  13. Angel, James J, 1997. " Tick Size, Share Prices, and Stock Splits," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 655-81, June.
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