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A dynamic bargaining model of sovereign debt

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  • Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo

Abstract

This paper models a dynamic bargaining game between a highly indebted country and its commercial bank consortium, to analyze the determinants of the resulting re-scheduling agreements and the net transfer of resources over time. The bargaining game is based on the simple paradigm that if no agreement is reached for a current payment, the banks would apply default sanctions. The author found that under general conditions settlements would be reached and default sanctions would not be applied in equilibrium. But the default sanctions would be a credible threat underlying the negotiations and determining the equilibrium payments. These equilibrium payments in turn would determine the credit ceiling and the later commercial discounts on the debt market. Unlike other bargaining games, this one explicitly models the debtor country's economic structure, featuring an import-dependent economy subject to foreign exchange and fiscal constraints. Moreover, the model is truly dynamic in the sense that the future negotiating environment is endogenously determined by current bargaining outcomes. Under plausible refinements and assumptions, the author obtains a closed-form solution for net transfers, dependent on various structural and policy parameters.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 778.

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Date of creation: 31 Oct 1991
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:778

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Related research

Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Banks&Banking Reform; Strategic Debt Management; Financial Intermediation;

References

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  1. Fernandez, R. & Rosenthal, R.W., 1988. "Sovereign-Debt Renegotiations: A Strtegic Analysis," Papers 85, Boston University - Center for Latin American Development Studies.
  2. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1998. "Default And Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model Of Debt," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-41, February.
  3. Jeffrey Sachs, 1983. "Theoretical Issues in International Borrowing," NBER Working Papers 1189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ariel Rubinstein, 2010. "Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Levine's Working Paper Archive 252, David K. Levine.
  5. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Cleaning Up Third World Debt without Getting Taken to the Cleaners," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 31-42, Winter.
  6. Fernandez, R. & Glazer, J., 1988. "Why Haven'T Debtor Countries Formed A Cartel?," Papers 84, Boston University - Center for Latin American Development Studies.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1996. "The new wave of private capital inflows: Push or pull?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 389-418, March.
  2. Claessens, Stijn & Diwan, Ishac & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1992. "Recent experience with commercial bank debt reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 995, The World Bank.
  3. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1992. "Burden-sharing among official and private creditors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 943, The World Bank.
  4. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, 1993. "Costs and benefits of debt and debt service reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1169, The World Bank.

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