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Seasonality in local food markets and consumption : evidence from Tanzania

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  • Kaminski,Jonathan
  • Christiaensen,Luc
  • Gilbert,Christopher L.
  • Kaminski,Jonathan
  • Christiaensen,Luc
  • Gilbert,Christopher L.

Abstract

This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods. It uses 19 years of monthly food prices from 20 markets and three years of nationally representative household panel surveys from Tanzania. Trigonometric specifications are introduced to measure the seasonal gap. When samples are short and seasonality is poorly defined, they produce less upward bias than the common dummy variable approach. On average, the seasonal gap for maize prices is estimated to be 27 percent; it is 15 percent for rice. In both cases it is two and a half to three times higher than in the international reference market. Food price seasonality is not a major contributor to food price volatility, but it does translate into seasonal variation in caloric intake of about 10 percent among poor urban households and rural net food sellers. Rural net food-buying households appear able to smooth their consumption. The disappearance of seasonality from Africa's development debate seems premature.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaminski,Jonathan & Christiaensen,Luc & Gilbert,Christopher L. & Kaminski,Jonathan & Christiaensen,Luc & Gilbert,Christopher L., 2015. "Seasonality in local food markets and consumption : evidence from Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7520, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7520
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    Cited by:

    1. Kate R. Schneider & Luc Christiaensen & Patrick Webb & William A. Masters, 2023. "Assessing the affordability of nutrient‐adequate diets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 503-524, March.
    2. Paul Christian & Brian Dillon, 2018. "Growing and Learning When Consumption Is Seasonal: Long-Term Evidence From Tanzania," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(3), pages 1091-1118, June.
    3. Gilbert, Christopher L. & Christiaensen, Luc & Kaminski, Jonathan, 2017. "Food price seasonality in Africa: Measurement and extent," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 119-132.
    4. Kayenat Kabir, 2023. "What Do We Know About Drought, Household Consumption and Seasonality: Evidence Review from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 303-317, November.
    5. Wassie, Solomon Bizuayehu & Kusakari, Hitoshi & Sumimoto, Masahiro, 2019. "Seasonality of Staple Food Prices in Ethiopia: Does Warehouse Service Matter?," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 21.
    6. Schneider, Kate & Christiaensen, Luc & Webb, Patrick & Masters, William A., 2021. "Availability, Seasonality, and Affordability of Nutritious Diets for All – Evidence from Malawi," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315036, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Bevis, Leah E.M. & Naschold, Felix & Rao, Tanvi, 2019. "An unequal burden: Intra-household dimensions of seasonal health in Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Egger, Dennis & Miguel, Edward & Warren, Shana S. & Shenoy, Ashish & Collins, Elliott & Karlan, Dean & Parkerson, Doug & Mobarak, A. Mushfiq & Fink, Günther & Udry, Christopher & Walker, Michael & Hau, 2021. "Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(6), pages 1-1.
    9. Imogen Bellwood‐Howard & Isaac Gershon Kodwo Ansah & Samuel Arkoh Donkoh & Gabin Korbéogo, 2021. "Managing seasonality in West African informal urban vegetable markets: The role of household relations," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 874-893, July.
    10. Wouter (W.) Zant, 2017. "Bridges," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-117/V, Tinbergen Institute, revised 06 Apr 2019.
    11. Kotu, B.H. & Abass, A. & Hoeschle-Zeledon, I. & Mbwambo, H. & Bekunda, M., 2018. "Returns to improved storage and potential impacts on household food security and income: evidence from Tanzania," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276965, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Wouter Zant, 2017. "Impact of Mobile Phones on Staple Food Markets in Mozambique: Improved Arbitrage or Increased Rent Extraction?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-021/V, Tinbergen Institute, revised 26 Jan 2018.
    13. Ping Wang & Nhuong Tran & Dolapo Enahoro & Chin Yee Chan & Kelvin Mashisia Shikuku & Karl M. Rich & Kendra Byrd & Shakuntala H. Thilsted, 2022. "Spatial and temporal patterns of consumption of animal‐source foods in Tanzania," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 328-348, April.
    14. World Bank Group, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, No. 14, October 2016," World Bank Publications - Reports 25097, The World Bank Group.
    15. Wouter Zant, 2018. "Mobile Phones and Mozambique Farmers: Less Asymmetric Information and More Trader Competition?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-055/V, Tinbergen Institute, revised 27 Oct 2019.
    16. Vandercasteelen, Joachim & Christiaensen, Luc, 2020. "Breaking down silos: On post-harvest loss interventions in Tanzania," Policy briefs 1247693176, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Wouter Zant, 2023. "How costly is using livestock as a savings device?," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(1), pages 77-110, February.
    18. Patrick L. Hatzenbuehler & George Mavrotas, 2021. "Combining household and price data to target food marketing interventions in Nigeria," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 493-505, April.
    19. Channa, Hira & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Feleke, Shiferaw & Abdoulaye, Tahirou, 2022. "Overcoming smallholder farmers’ post-harvest constraints through harvest loans and storage technology: Insights from a randomized controlled trial in Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    20. Lila Cardell & Hope Michelson, 2023. "Price risk and small farmer maize storage in Sub‐Saharan Africa: New insights into a long‐standing puzzle," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(3), pages 737-759, May.
    21. Hatzenbuehler, Patrick L. & Mavrotas, George & Maikasuwa, Mohammed Abubakar & Aliyu, Abdulrahaman, 2018. "Grain price seasonality in Kebbi state, Nigeria," NSSP working papers 51, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    22. Zant, Wouter, 2023. "Mobile Phones and Mozambique Traders: Size, Composition and Distribution of Reduced Transaction Costs," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    23. Brander, Michael & Bernauer, Thomas & Huss, Matthias, 2021. "Improved on-farm storage reduces seasonal food insecurity of smallholder farmer households – Evidence from a randomized control trial in Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    24. Alina Butu & Ioan Sebastian Brumă & Lucian Tanasă & Steliana Rodino & Codrin Dinu Vasiliu & Sebastian Doboș & Marian Butu, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 Crisis upon the Consumer Buying Behavior of Fresh Vegetables Directly from Local Producers. Case Study: The Quarantined Area of Suceava County, Romania," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-25, July.
    25. Omid Zamani & Thomas Bittmann & Jens‐Peter Loy, 2022. "The role of temperature for seasonal market integration: a case study of poultry in Iran," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(1), pages 187-215, January.

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