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Voter response to natural disaster aid : quasi-experimental evidence from drought relief payments in Mexico

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  • Fuchs, Alan
  • Rodriguez-Chamussy, Lourdes

Abstract

The paper estimates the effects on presidential election returns in Mexico of a government climatic contingency transfer that is allocated through rainfall-indexed insurance. The analysis uses the discontinuity in payments that slightly deviate from a pre-established threshold, based on rainfall accumulation measured at local weather stations. It turns out that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering drought relief compensation. The paper finds that receiving indemnity payments leads to significantly greater average electoral support for the incumbent party of approximately 7.6 percentage points. The analysis suggests that the incumbent party is rewarded by disaster aid recipients and punished by non-recipients. The paper contributes to the literature on retrospective voting by providing evidence that voters evaluate government actions and respond to disaster spending.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6836.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2014
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6836

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Related research

Keywords: Hazard Risk Management; Global Environment Facility; Natural Disasters; Technology Industry; Rural Poverty Reduction;

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  1. Healy, Andrew & Malhotra, Neil, 2010. "Random Events, Economic Losses, and Retrospective Voting: Implications for Democratic Competence," International Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 193-208, August.
  2. Marco Manacorda & Edward Miguel & Andrea Vigorito, 2011. "Government Transfers and Political Support," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, July.
  3. Russell Sobel & Peter Leeson, 2006. "Government's response to Hurricane Katrina: A public choice analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 55-73, April.
  4. Cole, Shawn & Healy, Andrew & Werker, Eric, 2012. "Do voters demand responsive governments? Evidence from Indian disaster relief," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 167-181.
  5. Stephan Litschig & Kevin Morrison, 2012. "Government Spending and Re-election: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Brazilian Municipalities," Working Papers 515, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  6. Alan Fuchs & Hendrik Wolff, 2011. "Concept and Unintended Consequences of Weather Index Insurance: The Case of Mexico," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 505-511.
  7. Stephan Litschig & Kevin Morrison, 2010. "Government spending and re-election: Quasi-experimental evidence from Brazilian municipalities," Economics Working Papers 1233, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2012.
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