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The real exchange rate and export growth : are services different ?

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  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Gupta, Poonam

Abstract

This paper considers the determinants of exports of modern services and traditional services. It considers the growth of export volumes as well as export surges, that is, the periods of rapid sustained export growth. It asks whether the determinants of export growth rates and export surges differ between merchandise, traditional services, and modern services and whether developing countries are different. It confirm the importance of the real exchange rate for export growth. The paper finds that the effect of the real exchange rate is even stronger for exports of services than for exports of goods and that it is especially strong for exports of modern services. The results suggest that in the course of their development, as developing countries shift from exporting commodities and merchandise to exporting traditional and modern services, appropriate policies toward the real exchange rate become even more important.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6629.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2013
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6629

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Keywords: Macroeconomic Management; Economic Theory&Research; Economic Stabilization; Emerging Markets; Achieving Shared Growth;

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References

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  1. Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2012. "Export surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 387-395.
  2. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
  3. Haddad, Mona & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2010. "Can Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Boost Exports and Growth in Developing Countries? Yes, But Not for Long," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 20, pages 1-5, June.
  4. Luis Servén, 2003. "ERRATUM: Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 492-492, May.
  5. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
  6. Simon Johnson & Jonathan D. Ostry & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints," NBER Working Papers 13120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ingo Borchert & Aaditya Mattoo, 2009. "The Crisis Resilience of Services Trade," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11123, The World Bank.
  8. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  9. Luis Servén, 2003. "Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCS," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 212-218, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2012. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: an analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," MPRA Paper 43118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Augusto de la Torre & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Samuel Pienknagura, . "Latin America’s Deceleration and the Exchange Rate Buffer : LAC Semiannual Report, October 2013," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16107, The World Bank.
  3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 231-245.
  4. Katalin Bodnár & György Molnár & Gábor Pellényi & Lajos Szabó & Judit Várhegyi, 2013. "Dynamics of the trade balance and developments in exports and imports," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), vol. 8(Special), pages 37-45, October.

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