Macroeconomic context and fiscal policy : Europe and Central Asia during 2000-2012
AbstractThis paper examines the interaction between fiscal policy and the broader macroeconomic context in open economies. It asks two questions. First, what was the relationship between fiscal policy and current account balances in countries in Europe and Central Asia during the past dozen years? Second, how might changes in (a) output composition and (b) financial sector profitability affect revenues and thus, the assessment of the underlying structural fiscal balance? The study finds that, for flexible exchange rate countries, expansionary fiscal policy has been associated with wider current account deficits. Moreover, changes in net exports and in financial sector profitability may have significant impacts on fiscal balances because of changes in revenues from the value-added tax and the corporate profits tax as a share of gross domestic product. These findings suggest that the countries of Europe and Central Asia have reason to be prudent in terms of fiscal policy choices, even as gross domestic product rises.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6621.
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Debt Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Emerging Markets; Access to Finance;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ACC-2013-10-02 (Accounting & Auditing)
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2013-10-02 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2013-10-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2013-10-02 (Public Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2013-10-02 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007.
"Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut","
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"," NBER Working Papers 11761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto F. Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2009.
"Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending,"
NBER Working Papers
15438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2005.
"Twin Deficits: Squaring Theory, Evidence and Common Sense,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2005/22, European University Institute.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 597-638, October.
- Lorenzo Forni & Libero Monteforte & Luca Sessa, 2007.
"The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: estimates for the euro area,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
652, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
- Luca Sessa & Libero Monteforte & Lorenzo Forni, 2007. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: estimates for the euro area," 2007 Meeting Papers 352, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
- Kearney, Colm & Monadjemi, Mehdi, 1990. "Fiscal policy and current account performance: International evidence on the twin deficits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 197-219.
- European Commission, 2010. "Financial Sector Taxation," Taxation Papers 25, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
- Jesmin Rahman, 2010. "Absorption Boom and Fiscal Stance: What Lies Ahead in Eastern Europe?," IMF Working Papers 10/97, International Monetary Fund.
- John Bluedorn & Daniel Leigh, 2011. "Revisiting the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on the Current Account," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(4), pages 582-602, November.
- Ferhan Salman & Gabriela Dobrescu, 2011. "Fiscal Policy during Absorption Cycles," IMF Working Papers 11/41, International Monetary Fund.
- Kun Li & Pablo Lopez Murphy, 2010. "Tax Revenue Downturns: Anatomy and Links to Imports," IMF Working Papers 10/138, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.