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Municipal vulnerability to climate change and climate related events in Mexico

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  • Borja-Vega, Christian
  • de la Fuente, Alejandro

Abstract

A climate change vulnerability index in agriculture is presented at the municipal level in Mexico. Because the index is built with a multidimensional approach to vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity), it represents a tool for policy makers, academics and government alike to inform decisions about climate change resilience and regional variations within the country. The index entails baseline (2005) and prediction (2045) levels based on historic climate data and future-climate modeling. The results of the analysis suggest a wide variation in municipal vulnerability across the country at baseline and prediction points. The vulnerability index shows that highly vulnerable municipalities demonstrate higher climate extremes, which increases uncertainty for harvest periods, and for agricultural yields and outputs. The index shows at baseline that coastal areas host some of the most vulnerable municipalities to climate change in Mexico. However, it also shows that the Northwest and Central regions will likely experience the largest shifts in vulnerability between 2005 and 2045. Finally, vulnerability is found to vary according to specific variables: municipalities with higher vulnerability have more adverse socio-demographic conditions. With the vast municipal data available in Mexico, further sub-index estimations can lead to answers for specific policy and research questions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6417.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2013
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6417

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Keywords: Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Science of Climate Change; Population Policies; Climate Change Economics; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences;

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  1. Havard, Sabrina & Deguen, Séverine & Bodin, Julie & Louis, Karine & Laurent, Olivier & Bard, Denis, 2008. "A small-area index of socioeconomic deprivation to capture health inequalities in France," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 67(12), pages 2007-2016, December.
  2. Dejian Lai, 2003. "Principal Component Analysis on Human Development Indicators of China," Social Indicators Research, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 319-330, March.
  3. Jean-Christophe Fotso & Barthelemy Kuate-Defo, 2005. "Measuring socioeconomic status in health research in developing countries: Should we be focusing on households, communities or both?," Social Indicators Research, Springer, vol. 72(2), pages 189-237, 06.
  4. Messer, Lynne C. & Vinikoor, Lisa C. & Laraia, Barbara A. & Kaufman, Jay S. & Eyster, Janet & Holzman, Claudia & Culhane, Jennifer & Elo, Irma & Burke, Jessica G. & O'Campo, Patricia, 2008. "Socioeconomic domains and associations with preterm birth," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 67(8), pages 1247-1257, October.
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