Trends in developing country exports, 1963-88

Certain experts have expressed the view that developed country imports from developing countries have a tendency to increase less rapidly than their gross domestic product. Additionally, the view has been expressed that developed countries have raised their barriers to imports from developing countries, thereby reducing the growth rate of their imports from these countries. It has further been suggested that the situation is aggravated by the decline in economic growth rates in the developed countries. The conclusion reached is that developing countries do not have favorable prospects for exporting to developed countries. In this paper, these propositions will be subjected to scrutiny. This is accomplished by contrasting data on developing country exports to the developed countries in the periods 1963-73 and 1973-88. The author's results conflict with earlier claims and indicate that developed countries'imports from developing countries tended to grow faster than the developed countries'gross domestic product. Among developing countries, exports grew more rapidly in countries that pursued outward-oriented policies. In turn, continual inward orientation led to losses in export market shares. These results are reinforced when individual countries are considered.