Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy
AbstractThis paper considers the effects of inaccurate real-time output data on fiscal management, both with respect to budgetary planning and fiscal surveillance. As newer and better information becomes available, output data available in real time get revised and are likely to conflict with final figures that are only released some years later. Nevertheless, fiscal policy needs to be inevitably based on real-time figures. The paper develops a simple modeling framework to formalize these linkages and combines it with a newly compiled dataset from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, comprising final and real-time output data for 175 countries, over a period of 17 years. We simulate the effects of output revisions on revisions of the overall balance, the structural balance and debt accumulation. It finds that output revisions may have substantial effects on the ability of governments to correctly estimate the overall balance and the structural fiscal balance in real time, and that the effects may imply substantial debt accumulation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6303.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Emerging Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Debt Markets; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Science Education;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francisco Castro & Javier J. Pérez & Marta Rodríguez‐Vives, 2013.
"Fiscal Data Revisions in Europe,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1187-1209, 09.
- Francisco de Castro & Javier J. Pérez & Marta Rodríguez Vives, 2011. "Fiscal data revisions in Europe," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 1106, Banco de Espa�a.
- de Castro Fernández, Francisco & Pérez, Javier J. & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta, 2011. "Fiscal data revisions in Europe," Working Paper Series 1342, European Central Bank.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001.
"The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The reliability of output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0768, Econometric Society.
- Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2011.
"Real-time data and fiscal policy analysis: a survey of the literature,"
Working Paper Series
1408, European Central Bank.
- Jacopo Cimadomo, 2011. "Real-time data and fiscal policy analysis: a survey of the literature," Working Papers 11-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Jacopo Cimadomo, 2011. "Real-Time Data and Fiscal Policy Analysis: a Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2011-20, CEPII research center.
- Frank-Oliver Aldenhoff, 2007. "Are economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund politically biased? A public choice analysis," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 239-260, September.
- Sven Langedijk & Martin Larch, 2007. "Testing the EU fiscal surveillance: How sensitive is it to variations in output gap estimates?," European Economy - Economic Papers 285, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Andrew Hughes Hallett & Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2012. "How Reliable Are Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances In Real Time?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 30(1), pages 75-92, 01.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Alberto Musso, 2010.
"the Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2010/06, European University Institute.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2011. "The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1842-1856, July.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "The Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7716, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dean Croushore, 2011.
"Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
- Álvaro Pina & Nuno Venes, 2007.
"The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment,"
Working Papers Department of Economics
2007/23, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Pina, Álvaro M. & Venes, Nuno M., 2011. "The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 534-546, September.
- Leal, Teresa & Pérez, Javier J. & Tujula, Mika & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007.
"Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges,"
Working Paper Series
0843, European Central Bank.
- Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, 09.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 2001.
"Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
- Auerbach, Alan J, 1995.
"Tax Projections and the Budget: Lessons from the 1980's,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 165-69, May.
- Alan J. Auerbach, 1995. "Tax Projections and the Budget: Lessons from the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 5009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ growth forecasts: an evaluation," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Allan Timmermann, 2006.
"An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts,"
IMF Working Papers
06/59, International Monetary Fund.
- Allan Timmermann, 2007. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 1-33, May.
- Victor Duarte Lledo & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, 2011.
"Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
IMF Working Papers
11/172, International Monetary Fund.
- Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011.
"Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications,"
8705906, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," NBER Working Papers 17239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ansgar Belke, 2014. "Monetary Dialogue 2009-2014 – Looking Backward, Looking Forward," Ruhr Economic Papers 0477, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.