Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Are international food price spikes the source of Egypt's high inflation ?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Al-Shawarby, Sherine
  • Selim, Hoda
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper examines whether domestic inflation spikes in Egypt during 2001-2011 were primarily the result of external food price shocks. To estimate the pass-through of international food price inflation to domestic price inflation, two different methodologies are used: a two-step regression model estimates the pass-through in the long run, and a vector autoregression model provides the short-run estimates. The empirical evidence confirms that pass-through is high in the short term, but not in the long run. More precisely, the results show that (i) long-run pass-through to domestic food inflation is relatively low, lying between 13 and 16 percent, while the long-term spill-over from domestic food inflation to core inflation is moderate, lying around 60 percent; (ii) in the short term, pass-through is relatively high, estimated around 29 percent after 6 months and around two-thirds after a year, but the spill-over effect to core inflation is limited; (iii) international food price shocks explain only a small portion of domestic inflation shocks in both the short and long terms; and (iv) international price inflation has asymmetric effects on domestic prices.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2012/08/20/000158349_20120820133956/Rendered/PDF/wps6177.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6177.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 01 Aug 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6177

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
    Phone: (202) 477-1234
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Food&Beverage Industry; Markets and Market Access; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Emerging Markets; Access to Markets;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. El-Sakka M. I. T. & Ghali Khalifa H, 2005. "The Sources of Inflation in Egypt: A Multivariate Co-integration Analysis," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 84-96, December.
    2. Jongwanich, Juthathip & Park, Donghyun, 2009. "Inflation in developing Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 507-518, September.
    3. Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Onorante, Luca, 2010. "Food price pass-through in the euro area The role of asymmetries and non-linearities," Working Paper Series 1168, European Central Bank.
    4. Sam Peltzman, 1998. "Prices Rise Faster Than They Fall," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State 142, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
    5. Albers, Ronald & Peeters, Marga, 2011. "Food and energy prices, government subsidies and fiscal balances in south Mediterranean countries," MPRA Paper 28788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Galesi, Alessandro & Lombardi, Marco J., 2009. "External shocks and international inflation linkages: a global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1062, European Central Bank.
    7. Fred Furlong, 1989. "Commodity prices and inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.