IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/5807.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A dynamic model of extreme risk coverage : resilience and efficiency in the global reinsurance market

Author

Listed:
  • Lemoyne de Forges, Sabine
  • Bibas, Ruben
  • Hallegatte, Stephane

Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic model of the reinsurance market for catastrophe risks. The model is based on the classical capacity-constraint assumption. Reinsurers choose every year the quantity of risk they cover and the level of external capital they raise to cover these risks. The model exhibits time dependency and reproduces a market dynamics that shares many features with the real market. In particular, market price increases and reinsurance coverage decreases after large shocks, and a series of smaller losses may have a deeper impact than one larger loss. There is a significant oligopoly effect reducing reinsurance supply, and the market is segregated into strategic large actors that influence market prices and price-taker smaller firms. A regulation trade-off between market efficiency and resilience is identified and quantified: improving the ability of the market to cope with exceptional events increases the cost of reinsurance. This model provides an interesting basis to analyze further capacity needs for the insurance industry in view of growing worldwide exposure to catastrophic risks and climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Lemoyne de Forges, Sabine & Bibas, Ruben & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2011. "A dynamic model of extreme risk coverage : resilience and efficiency in the global reinsurance market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5807, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5807
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2011/09/22/000158349_20110922160728/Rendered/PDF/WPS5807.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neil Doherty & Kent Smetters, 2005. "Moral Hazard in Reinsurance Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 375-391, September.
    2. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "A Survey of Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 737-783, June.
    3. Kenneth A. Froot, 1999. "The Financing of Catastrophe Risk," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number froo99-1, March.
    4. Jean-Baptiste, Eslyn L. & Santomero, Anthony M., 2000. "The Design of Private Reinsurance Contracts," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 274-297, July.
    5. Julien Hardelin & Sabine Lemoyne de Forges, 2012. "Raising Capital in an Insurance Oligopoly Market," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 37(1), pages 83-108, March.
    6. James G. Bohn & Brian Hall, 1999. "The Moral Hazard of Insuring the Insurers," NBER Chapters, in: The Financing of Catastrophe Risk, pages 363-390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. J. David Cummins & Mary A. Weiss, 2009. "Convergence of Insurance and Financial Markets: Hybrid and Securitized Risk‐Transfer Solutions," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 493-545, September.
    8. Scott E. Harrington, 2009. "The Financial Crisis, Systemic Risk, and the Future of Insurance Regulation," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 785-819, December.
    9. Froot, Kenneth A. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1998. "Risk management, capital budgeting, and capital structure policy for financial institutions: an integrated approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 55-82, January.
    10. Winter Ralph A., 1994. "The Dynamics of Competitive Insurance Markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-415, September.
    11. Doherty, N A & Tinic, S M, 1981. "Reinsurance under Conditions of Capital Market Equilibrium: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 949-953, September.
    12. Anne Gron, 1994. "Capacity Constraints and Cycles in Property-Casualty Insurance Markets," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 110-127, Spring.
    13. David M. Cutler & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1999. "Reinsurance for Catastrophes and Cataclysms," NBER Chapters, in: The Financing of Catastrophe Risk, pages 233-274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Susan Hanson & Robert Nicholls & N. Ranger & S. Hallegatte & J. Corfee-Morlot & C. Herweijer & J. Chateau, 2011. "A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 89-111, January.
    15. Froot, Kenneth A., 2001. "The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 529-571, May.
    16. Guillaume Plantin, 2006. "Does Reinsurance Need Reinsurers?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 153-168, March.
    17. Mayers, David & Smith, Clifford W, Jr, 1990. "On the Corporate Demand for Insurance: Evidence from the Reinsurance Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 19-40, January.
    18. J. David Cummins & Richard D. Phillips, 2005. "Estimating the Cost of Equity Capital for Property‐Liability Insurers," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 441-478, September.
    19. Cummins, J. David & Danzon, Patricia M., 1997. "Price, Financial Quality, and Capital Flows in Insurance Markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 3-38, January.
    20. Mary A. Weiss & Joon‐Hai Chung, 2004. "U.S. Reinsurance Prices, Financial Quality, and Global Capacity," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 437-467, September.
    21. Celine Herweijer & Nicola Ranger & Robert E T Ward, 2009. "Adaptation to Climate Change: Threats and Opportunities for the Insurance Industry," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 34(3), pages 360-380, July.
    22. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2011. "How economic growth and rational decisions can make disaster losses grow faster than wealth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5617, The World Bank.
    23. Guillaume Plantin, 2006. "Does Reinsurance Need Reinsurers?," Post-Print hal-03416025, HAL.
    24. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G.J., 2008. "On the pricing of intermediated risks: Theory and application to catastrophe reinsurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 69-85, January.
    25. Cagle, Julie A B & Harrington, Scott E, 1995. "Insurance Supply with Capacity Constraints and Endogenous Insolvency Risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 219-232, December.
    26. J. David Cummins & Philippe Trainar, 2009. "Securitization, Insurance, and Reinsurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 463-492, September.
    27. Cummins, J. David & Doherty, Neil & Lo, Anita, 2002. "Can insurers pay for the "big one"? Measuring the capacity of the insurance market to respond to catastrophic losses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 557-583, March.
    28. J. David Cummins, 2008. "CAT Bonds and Other Risk‐Linked Securities: State of the Market and Recent Developments," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 11(1), pages 23-47, March.
    29. Mary A. Weiss, 2007. "Underwriting Cycles: A Synthesis and Further Directions," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 31-46.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The imperfect market for re-insurance
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-10-18 19:31:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Burns,Andrew & Jooste,Charl & Schwerhoff,Gregor, 2021. "Macroeconomic Modeling of Managing Hurricane Damage in the Caribbean : The Case of Jamaica," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9505, The World Bank.
    2. Matt Davison & Darrell Leadbetter & Bin Lu & Jane Voll, 2016. "Are Counterparty Arrangements in Reinsurance a Threat to Financial Stability?," Staff Working Papers 16-39, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dionne, Georges & Harrington, Scott, 2017. "Insurance and Insurance Markets," Working Papers 17-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    2. Kenneth A. Froot, 2007. "Risk Management, Capital Budgeting, and Capital Structure Policy for Insurers and Reinsurers," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 273-299, June.
    3. Gibson, Rajna & Habib, Michel A. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2014. "Reinsurance or securitization: The case of natural catastrophe risk," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 79-100.
    4. Patricia H. Born & Barbara Klimaszewski-Blettner, 2013. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Impact of Natural Disasters and Regulation on U.S. Property Insurers’ Supply Decisions," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(1), pages 1-36, March.
    5. Helmut Gründl & Danjela Guxha & Anastasia Kartasheva & Hato Schmeiser, 2021. "Insurability of pandemic risks," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 863-902, December.
    6. Zanjani, George, 2002. "Pricing and capital allocation in catastrophe insurance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 283-305, August.
    7. Upreti, Vineet & Adams, Mike, 2015. "The strategic role of reinsurance in the United Kingdom’s (UK) non-life insurance market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 206-219.
    8. J. David Cummins & Georges Dionne & Robert Gagné & Abdelhakim Nouira, 2021. "The costs and benefits of reinsurance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 46(2), pages 177-199, April.
    9. Neil A. Doherty & Christian Laux & Alexander Muermann, 2015. "Insuring Nonverifiable Losses," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 283-316.
    10. Mathieu Gatumel & Sabine Lemoyne de Forges, 2013. "Understanding and Monitoring Reinsurance Counterparty Risk," Post-Print hal-00946934, HAL.
    11. David L. Dicks & James R. Garven, 2022. "Asymmetric information and insurance cycles," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 449-474, June.
    12. J. David Cummins & Christopher M. Lewis, 2002. "Catastrophic Events, Parameter Uncertainty and the Breakdown of Implicit Long-term Contracting in the Insurance Market: The Case of Terrorism Insurance," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-40, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    13. Doherty, Neil A. & Laux, Christian & Muermann, Alexander, 2010. "Insuring Non-verifiable Losses and the Role of Internediaries," Working Papers 11-31, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    14. Georges Dionne & Denise Desjardins, 2022. "A re‐examination of the US insurance market's capacity to pay catastrophe losses," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 515-549, December.
    15. Harrington, Scott E. & Niehaus, Greg, 2003. "Capital, corporate income taxes, and catastrophe insurance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 365-389, October.
    16. Greg Niehaus, 2023. "Personal taxes, cost of insurer equity capital, and the case of offshore hedge fund reinsurers," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 90(2), pages 249-281, June.
    17. John Lewis, 2010. "Reinsurers as financial intermediaries in the market for catastrophic risk," DNB Occasional Studies 802, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    18. Götze, Tobias & Gürtler, Marc, 2020. "Risk transfer and moral hazard: An examination on the market for insurance-linked securities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 758-777.
    19. Dionne, Georges & Desjardins, Denise, 2017. "Reinsurance Demand and Liquidity Creation," Working Papers 17-3, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    20. J. David Cummins & Philippe Trainar, 2009. "Securitization, Insurance, and Reinsurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 463-492, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markets and Market Access; Insurance&Risk Mitigation; Climate Change Economics; Debt Markets; Emerging Markets;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Economic Logic blog

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.