Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Anticipated real exchange-rate changes and the dynamics of investment

Contents:

Author Info

  • Serven, Luis
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The impact of permanent real depreciation on a country's capital stock is uncertain. Whether total capital stock rises or falls depends on how depreciation affects aggregate demand, the real interest rate, and especially the import content of capital goods. In the long run, the capital stock can be expected to rise in traded goods and fall in nontraded goods. Despite this long-run ambiguity, anticipated changes in real exchange rate have a predictable effect on the dynamics of capital accumulation. They provide an incentive for speculative rellocation of investment over time, so they can greatly distort the timing of investments. In the framework of this paper, the time profile of investment is related to how financially open an economy is and to the import content of capital goods. When a real depreciation is expected, an investment boom is likely to develop if the import content of capital goods is high relative to the degree of capital mobility: the anticipated depreciation promotes flight into foreign goods. Conversely, with high capital mobility, the opposite investment pattern is likely to emerge, as the anticipated depreciation promotes flight into foreign assets.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1990/12/01/000009265_3960930083215/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 562.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 31 Dec 1990
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:562

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
    Phone: (202) 477-1234
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Environmental Economics&Policies; Macroeconomic Management; Banks&Banking Reform;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Buffie, Edward F., 1986. "Devaluation, investment and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 361-379, March.
    2. Willem H. Buiter, 1984. "Saddlepoint Problems in Contifuous Time Rational Expectations Models: A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Ehamples," NBER Technical Working Papers 0020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    4. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    5. J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-43, March.
    7. Browne, Francis X. & McNelis, Paul D., 1990. "Exchange controls and interest rate determination with traded and non-traded assets: the Irish-United Kingdom experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 41-59, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:562. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.