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A flaw in the model ... that defines how the world works

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  • Bieta, Volker
  • Milde, Hellmuth
  • Weber, Nadine
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    Abstract

    The authors of this paper claim that modeling financial markets based on probability theory is a severe systematic mistake that led to the global financial crisis. They argue that the crisis was not just the result of risk managers using outdated financial data, but that the employed efficiency model -- also referred to as the stochastic model -- is basically flawed. In an exemplary way, the analysis proves that this model is unable to account for interactions between market participants, neglects strategic interdependences, and hence leads to erroneous solutions. The central message is that the existing efficiency model should be replaced by an approach using agent-based scenario analysis.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5498.

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    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5498

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    Related research

    Keywords: Banks&Banking Reform; Debt Markets; Labor Policies; Access to Finance; Economic Theory&Research;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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