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Global imbalances before and after the global crisis

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  • Serven, Luis
  • Nguyen, Ha

Abstract

This paper surveys the academic and policy debate on the roots of global imbalances, their role in the inception of the global crisis, and their prospects in its aftermath. The conventional view holds that global imbalances result primarily from unsustainably high demand for goods in the United States and other rich countries, and that their impending correction must involve major United States trade adjustment and dollar depreciation -- although recent literature argues that their extent may be dampened by financial adjustment effects. In contrast, an alternative view portrays global imbalances as the equilibrium result of asymmetries in world asset demand and supply. Absent changes in the deep determinants of these, global imbalances can persist. International capital flow patterns before and during the crisis lend support to the equilibrium view. The paper also examines different hypotheses proposed in the literature on the role of global imbalances in the generation and propagation of the financial crisis. On the whole, the evidence suggests that global imbalances were not among the major causes of the crisis. Lastly, the paper assesses alternative scenarios about the future of global imbalances, considering in particular their potential consequences for developing countries, and the policy measures that these might adopt to enhance their growth prospects in a changing global equilibrium.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5354.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5354

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Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates; Debt Markets; Emerging Markets; Economic Theory&Research; Investment and Investment Climate;

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References

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  1. David Backus & Espen Henriksen & Frederic Lambert & Christopher Telmer, 2009. "Current Account Fact and Fiction," NBER Working Papers 15525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, 09.
  3. Plamen Iossifov & Martin Cihák & Amar Shanghavi, 2008. "Interest Rate Elasticity of Residential Housing Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/247, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Global Imbalances and Capital Account Openness: an Empirical Analysis," CEPN Working Papers halshs-00641456, HAL.
  2. Yap, Josef T., 2011. "The Political Economy of Reducing the US Dollar’s Role as a Global Reserve Currency," ADBI Working Papers 302, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  3. Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Global Imbalances and Capital Account Openness: an Empirical Analysis," Working Papers halshs-00641456, HAL.
  4. Clifton, Judith & Díaz-Fuentes, Daniel, 2011. "La Nueva Política Económica de la OCDE ante el cambio en la Economía Mundial
    [The New Political Economy of the OECD in a context of Shifting World Wealth]    ," MPRA Paper 33010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Yap, Josef T., 2011. "The Political Economy of Reducing the United States Dollar`s Role as a Global Reserve Currency," Discussion Papers DP 2011-13, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  6. Kim, C., 2011. "Global balance and financial stability: twin objectives toward a resilient global economic system," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 15, pages 61-72, February.

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