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Will the clean development mechanism mobilize anticipated levels of mitigation ?

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  • Rahman, Shaikh M.
  • Dinar, Ariel
  • Larson, Donald F.

Abstract

Under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries can only tap mitigation opportunities in developing countries by investing in projects under the Clean Development Mechanism. Yet Clean Development Mechanism investments have so far failed to reach many of the high-potential sectors identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This raises doubts about whether the Clean Development Mechanism can generate an adequate supply of credits from the limited areas where it has proved successful. This paper examines the current trajectory of mitigation projects entering the Clean Development Mechanism pipeline and projects it forward under the assumption that the diffusion of the Clean Development Mechanism will follow a path similar to other innovations. Projections are then compared with pre-Clean Development Mechanism predictions of the mechanism’s potential market size to discern whether limits on the types of projects entering the pipeline have limited the expected supply of certified emission reductions. Parameter tests suggest that this is not the case and that currently identified Clean Development Mechanism investments will generate offsets in excess of early model predictions. In particular, under favorable circumstances, the mechanism is on track to deliver an average annual flow of roughly 700 million certified emission reductions by the close of 2012 and nearly to 1,100 million certified emission reductions by 2020.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5239.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5239

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Keywords: Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Climate Change Economics; ICT Policy and Strategies; Energy Production and Transportation; Carbon Policy and Trading;

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Cited by:
  1. Suzi Kerr & Adam Millard-Ball, 2012. "Cooperation to Reduce Developing Country Emissions," Working Papers, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research 12_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  2. Cassimon, Danny & Prowse, Martin & Essers, Dennis, 2011. "Financing the Clean Development Mechanism through debt-for-efficiency swaps? Case study evidence from a Uruguayan wind farm project," IOB Working Papers, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy and Management (IOB) 2011.06, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy and Management (IOB).
  3. World Bank, 2010. "10 Years of Experience in Carbon Finance : Insights from Working with the Kyoto Mechanisms," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2873, The World Bank.

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