Assessing the potential impact on poverty of rising cereals prices : the case of Mali

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Assessing the potential impact on poverty of rising cereals prices : the case of Mali

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Joseph, George
Wodon, Quentin

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Abstract

Concerns have been raised about the impact of rising food prices worldwide on the poor. To assess the (short term) impact of rising food prices in any particular country it is necessary to look at both the impact on food producers (who benefit from an increase in prices) and food consumers (who loose out when the price increases), with a focus on poor producers and consumers. In Mali the impact of a change in the price of rice is not ambiguous because about half of the rice consumed in the country is imported, so that the negative impact for consumers is much larger than the positive impact for producers. By contrast, for millet and sorghum, as well as corn, the impact is more ambiguoussince much of the consumption is locally produced. Using a recent and comprehensive household survey, this paper provides an assessment of the potential impact of higher food prices on the poor in Mali using both simple statistical analysis and non-parametric methods. The paper finds that rising food prices for rice, millet and sorghum, corn, as well as wheat and bread could together lead to a substantial increase in poverty, with the increase in the price of rice having by far the largest negative impact.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4744.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4744

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-AGR-2008-10-13 (Agricultural Economics)
NEP-ALL-2008-10-13 (All new papers)
NEP-DEV-2008-10-13 (Development)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Budd, John W, 1993. "Changing Food Prices and Rural Welfare: A Nonparametric Examination of the Cote d'Ivoire," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(3), pages 587-603, April.
Christiaensen, Luc & Scott, Christopher & Wodon, Quentin, 2002. "Poverty Measurement and Analysis," MPRA Paper 11810, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
C. Peter Timmer & David Dawe, 2007. "Managing Food Price Instability in Asia: A Macro Food Security Perspective ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-18, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ravallion, Martin & van de Walle, Dominique, 1991. "The impact on poverty of food pricing reforms: A welfare analysis for Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-299. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Peter Warr, 2005. "Food Policy And Poverty In Indonesia: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 2005-03, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
Nouve, Kofi & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Impact of rising rice prices and policy responses in Mali : simulations with a dynamic CGE model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4739, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Tsimpo, Clarence & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Rice prices and poverty in Liberia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4742, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Sudarno Sumarto & Asep Suryahadi & Wenefrida Widyanti, 2004. "Assessing the Impact of Indonesian Social Safety Net Programs on Household Welfare and Poverty Dynamics," Development Economics Working Papers 108, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
Wodon, Quentin & Zaman, Hassan, 2008. "Rising food prices in Sub-Saharan Africa : poverty impact and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4738, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Nouve, Kofi & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Impact of rising rice prices and policy responses in Mali : simulations with a dynamic CGE model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4739, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]

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