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Impact of rising rice prices and policy responses in Mali : simulations with a dynamic CGE model

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  • Nouve, Kofi
  • Wodon, Quentin

Abstract

The increase in the international price of rice is likely to have substantial negative impacts on the poor in countries such as Mali which are net importers of rice. This paper relies on a dynamic CGE model to estimate the likely impact of the recent increase in rice prices on poverty with and without policy responses. Two sets of policy responses are considered: import tax cuts on rice and measures to increase productivity of domestic rice production. The results suggest that an increase in productivity would have a much larger positive impact than a reduction in taxes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4739.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4739

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Markets and Market Access; Food&Beverage Industry; Rural Poverty Reduction; Crops&Crop Management Systems;

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References

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  1. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Cahiers de recherche 9909, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
  2. C. Peter Timmer & David Dawe, 2007. "Managing Food Price Instability in Asia: A Macro Food Security Perspective ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 1-18, 03.
  3. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  4. Peter Warr, 2005. "Food Policy And Poverty In Indonesia: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 2005-03, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  5. Nicholas Minot & Francesco Goletti, 1998. "Export Liberalization and Household Welfare: The Case of Rice in Vietnam," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 738-749.
  6. Boyce, James K & Ravallion, Martin, 1991. "A Dynamic Econometric Model of Agricultural Wage Determination in Bangladesh," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(4), pages 361-76, November.
  7. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2002-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Decaluwe, Bernard & Martens, Andre, 1988. "CGE modeling and developing economies: A concise empirical survey of 73 applications to 26 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 529-568.
  9. Quentin Wodon & Hassan Zaman, 2010. "Higher Food Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa: Poverty Impact and Policy Responses," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 25(1), pages 157-176, February.
  10. Budd, John W, 1993. "Changing Food Prices and Rural Welfare: A Nonparametric Examination of the Cote d'Ivoire," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(3), pages 587-603, April.
  11. Christopher B. Barrett & Paul A. Dorosh, 1996. "Farmers' Welfare and Changing Food Prices: Nonparametric Evidence from Rice in Madagascar," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 656-669.
  12. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
  13. Joseph, George & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Assessing the potential impact on poverty of rising cereals prices : the case of Mali," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4744, The World Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Joseph, George & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Assessing the potential impact on poverty of rising cereals prices : the case of Mali," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4744, The World Bank.
  2. Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Tokgoz, Simla & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Eddie C., 2009. "A Quantitative Analysis of Trade Policy Responses to High Agricultural Commodity Prices," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51805, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Quentin Wodon, 2012. "Improving the Targeting of Social Programs in Ghana," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13082, January.

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