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An alternative framework for foreign exchange risk management of sovereign debt

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Melecky, Martin

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Abstract

This paper proposes a measure of synchronization in the movements of relevant domestic and foreign fundamentals for choosing suitable currency for denomination of foreign debt. The selection of explanatory variables for exchange rate volatility is motivated using a New Keynesian Policy model. The model predicts that not only traditional optimal currency area variables, but also variables considered by the literature on currency preferences, such as money velocity, should be relevant for explaining exchange rate volatility. The findings show that measures of inflation synchronization, money velocity synchronization, and interest rate synchronization can be useful indicators for decisions on the currency denomination of foreign debt.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4458.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4458

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Keywords: Debt Markets Emerging Markets Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory & Research

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  1. Bohn, Henning, 1990. "A positive theory of foreign currency debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 273-292, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Melecky, Martin, 2007. "Choosing the currency structure for sovereign debt : a review of current approaches," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4246, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2001. "P-STAR analysis in a converging economy: the case of Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-60, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Exchange rate volatility and intervention: implications of the theory of optimum currency areas," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 191-209, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Fernando Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2003. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Economics Working Papers 838, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Bohn, Henning, 1990. "Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1217-30, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Devereux, Michael B. & Lane, Philip R., 2003. "Understanding bilateral exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 109-132, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Charles Engel and Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
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  12. Francesco Giavazzi & Alessandro Missale, 2004. "Public Debt Management in Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ricardo Caballero & Kevin Cowan, 2006. "Financial Integration Without the Volatility," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 387, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  14. Kingston, Geoffrey & Melecky, Martin, 2007. "Currency preferences and the Australian dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-467, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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