Quantitative approaches to fiscal sustainability analysis : a new World Bank tool applied to Turkey
AbstractFiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis. The authors review various quantitative approaches to FSA with a major objective to bring these approaches together and to present a user-friendly tool for FSA that reflects modern developments. They combine a dynamic simulations approach with a simplified version of the steady-state consistency approach. They also incorporate two different methods to deal with uncertainty: user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations. The tool goes further by evaluating the required fiscal adjustment as a consequence of the stochastic realizations of the exogenous variables. Furthermore, the fiscal sustainability tool incorporates an endogenous debt feedback rule for the primary surplus, a fiscal policy reaction function. Besides outlining the theoretical framework, the authors also present a case study for Turkey.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4169.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Economic Theory&Research; External Debt; Economic Stabilization; Banks&Banking Reform; Public Sector Economics&Finance;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2007-03-17 (Banking)
- NEP-CWA-2007-03-17 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-MAC-2007-03-17 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1998.
"Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis,"
Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
WP-98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1999. "Prospective deficits and the asian currency crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2174, The World Bank.
- Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 2015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Burnside, C. & Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S., 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," RCER Working Papers 458, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Hana Polackova Brixi & Allen Schick, 2002. "Government at Risk : Contingent Liabilities and Fiscal Risk," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15233.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ritu Anand & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1988. "Inflation, External Debt and Financial Sector Reform: A Quantitative Approach To Consistent Fiscal Policy With An Application to Turkey," NBER Working Papers 2731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anand, Ritu & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Inflation and the Financing of Government Expenditure: An Introductory Analysis with an Application to Turkey," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 3(1), pages 17-38, January.
- Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1985. "Trade reform, aggregate investment and capital flight : On credibility and the value of information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 369-372.
- Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Peter S. Heller, 2005. "Understanding Fiscal Space," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 05/4, International Monetary Fund.
- Craig Burrnside, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice : A Handbook," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7495.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Gill, Indermit & Pinto, Brian, 2005. "Public debt in developing countries : has the market-based model worked?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3674, The World Bank.
- Thomas Baunsgaard, 2003. "Fiscal Policy in Nigeria," IMF Working Papers 03/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Willem H. Buiter, 1990. "Principles of Budgetary and Financial Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262524139, December.
- Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2013.
"Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(22), pages 3211-3219, August.
- Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2011. "Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2011-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 13 Jul 2011.
- Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Steahr, 2011. "Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 2011014, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2011.
- Bandiera, Luca & Budina, Nina & Klijn, Michel & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2007. "The"how to"of fiscal sustainability : a technical manual for using the fiscal sustainability tool," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4170, The World Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.