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Lasting local impacts of an economywide crisis

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Author Info
Ravallion, Martin
Lokshin, Michael

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Abstract

The immediate welfare costs of an economywide crisis can be high, but are there also lasting impacts? And are they greater in some geographic areas than others? The authors study Indonesia’s severe financial crisis of 1998. They use 10 national surveys spanning 1993–2002, each covering 200,000 randomly sampled households, to estimate the impacts on mean consumption and the incidence of poverty across each of 260 districts. Counterfactual analyses indicate geographically diverse impacts years after the crisis. Proportionate impacts on the poverty rate were greater in initially better off and less unequal areas. In the aggregate, a large share - possibly the majority - of those Indonesians who were still poor in 2002 would not have been so without the 1998 crisis.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3503.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3503

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Related research
Keywords: Public Health Promotion; Poverty Monitoring&Analysis; Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Economic Conditions and Volatility; Inequality; Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Poverty Assessment; Economic Conditions and Volatility;

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  1. Stefan Dercon (QEH), . "Vulnerability: a micro perspective," QEH Working Papers qehwps149, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  2. TAMURA Sakuya & SAWADA Yasuyuki, 2009. "Consumption Insurance against Unforeseen Epidemics:The Case of Avian Influenza in Vietnam," Discussion papers 09023, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  3. Stefan Dercon (QEH), . "Risk, Growth and Poverty: what do we know, what do we need to know?," QEH Working Papers qehwps148, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  4. Santos, Paulo & Barrett, Christopher B., 2006. "Informal Insurance in the Presence of Poverty Traps: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25487, International Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
  5. Beegle, Kathleen & Dehejia, Rajeev H. & Gatti, Roberta & Krutikova, Sofya, 2008. "The consequences of child labor : evidence from longitudinal data in rural Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4677, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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