Traffic fatalities and economic growth
AbstractThe authors examine the impact of income growth on the death rate due to traffic fatalities, as well as on fatalities per motor vehicle and on the motorization rate (vehicles/population) using panel data from 1963-99 for 88 countries. Specifically, they estimate fixed effects models for fatalities/population, vehicles/population, and fatalities/vehicles and use these models to project traffic fatalities and the stock of motor vehicles to 2020.The relationship between motor vehicle fatality rate and per capita income at first increases with per capita income, reaches a peak, and then declines. This is because at low income levels the rate of increase in motor vehicles outpaces the decline in fatalities per motor vehicle. At higher income levels, the reverse occurs. The income level at which per capita traffic fatalities peaks is approximately $8,600 in 1985 international dollars. This is within the range of income at which other externalities, such as air and water pollution, have been found to peak. Projections of future traffic fatalities suggest that the global road death toll will grow by approximately 66 percent between 2000 and 2020. This number, however, reflects divergent rates of change in different parts of the world-a decline in fatalities in high-income countries of approximately 28 percent versus an increase in fatalities of almost 92 percent in China and 147 percent in India. The authors also predict that the fatality rate will rise to approximately 2 per 10,000 persons in developing countries by 2020, while it will fall to less than 1 per 10,000 in high-income countries.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3035.
Date of creation: 30 Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Roads&Highways; Economic Conditions and Volatility; Inter-Urban Roads and Passenger Transport; Roads&Highways; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Inequality;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schafer, Andreas, 1998. "The global demand for motorized mobility," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 455-477, August.
- Daniel Albalate & Germa Bel, 2008. "Motorways, tolls and road safety.Evidence from European Panel Data," IREA Working Papers 200802, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2008.
- Kopits, Elizabeth & Cropper, Maureen, 2005.
"Why have traffic fatalities declined in industrialized countries ? Implications for pedestrians and vehicle occupants,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3678, The World Bank.
- Elizabeth Kopits & Maureen Cropper, 2008. "Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialised Countries?: Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 42(1), pages 129-154, January.
- Cropper, Maureen L. & Kopits, Elizabeth, 2005. "Why Have Traffic Fatalities Declined in Industrialized Countries' Implications for Pedestrians and Vehicle Occupants," Working paper 354, Regulation2point0.
- Bhattacharya, Soma & Alberini, Anna & Cropper, Maureen L., 2006.
"The value of mortality risk reductions in Delhi, India,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3995, The World Bank.
- Soma Bhattacharya & Anna Alberini & Maureen Cropper, 2007. "The value of mortality risk reductions in Delhi, India," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 21-47, February.
- Alberini, Anna & Bhattacharya, Soma & Cropper, Maureen L., 2006. "The Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Delhi, India," Working paper 209, Regulation2point0.
- Nejat Anbarci & Monica Escaleras & Charles Register, 2005. "Income, Income Inequality and the “Hidden Epidemic” of Traffic Fatalities," Working Papers 05002, Department of Economics, College of Business, Florida Atlantic University, revised Aug 2006.
- Yoshitsugu Kitazawa, 2010. "Size of economic activity and occurrence of fatal traffic accidents: a count panel data analysis on Fukuoka prefecture in Japan," Discussion Papers 41, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
- Quigley, John M., 2008. "Urbanization, Agglomeration, and Economic Development," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6tf2s100, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- Michael Grimm & Carole Treibich, 2013.
"Determinants Of Road Traffic Crash Fatalities Across Indian States,"
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(8), pages 915-930, 08.
- Grimm, M. & Treibich, C., 2012. "Determinants of road traffic crash fatalities across Indian States," ISS Working Papers - General Series 531, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
- Donald Freeman, 2012. "Income and Preventable Mortality: The Case of Youth Traffic Fatalities," Working Papers 1201, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
- Akie Takeuchi & Maureen Cropper & Antonio Bento, 2007.
"The Impact Of Policies To Control Motor Vehicle Emissions In Mumbai, India,"
Journal of Regional Science,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 27-46.
- Takeuchi, Akie & Cropper, Maureen & Bento, Antonio, 2006. "The impact of policies to control motor vehicle emissions in Mumbai, India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4059, The World Bank.
- David Bishai & Asma Quresh & Prashant James & Abdul Ghaffar, 2006. "National road casualties and economic development," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 65-81.
- Eskeland, Gunnar S. & Mideksa, Torben K., 2008. "Transportation fuel use, technology and standards: The role of credibility and expectations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4695, The World Bank.
- Grimm, M. & Treibich, C., 2010. "Socio-economic determinants of road traffic accident fatalities in low and middle income countries," ISS Working Papers - General Series 504, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
- Shuhei Nishitateno & Paul J. Burke, 2014. "The motorcycle Kuznets curve," Departmental Working Papers 2014-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Mercedes Castro-Nuno & Jose I. Castillo-Manzano & Xavier Fageda, 2013. "The ?Europeanization? Of The Common Road Safety Policy: An Econometric Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa13p50, European Regional Science Association.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.