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Reform, growth, and poverty in Vietnam

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  • Dollar, David

Abstract

Vietnam grew rapidly in the 1990s, and yet by many measures it has poor economic institutions. Dollar seeks to explain this apparent anomaly. Between the 1980s and 1990s Vietnam carried out significant economic reforms, notably stabilization, the introduction of positive real interest rates, trade liberalization, and initial property rights reform in agriculture. Relating these changes to the empirical growth literature, the author finds that Vietnam's growth acceleration is about what would be predicted. Conditional convergence also suggests that the country's high growth rate will decelerate unless further reforms are taken. The author then looks at the level of institutional and policy development in Vietnam compared with other emerging market economies. While Vietnam's policies have improved, they did so starting from a very low base. So, it can be simultaneously true that Vietnam's policies have improved a lot and yet are rather poor in comparative perspective. A comparison of governance indicators, financial sector issues, and the infrastructure of international integration reveals serious institutional weaknesses in Vietnam that need to be addressed if a high growth rate is to be sustained.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2837.

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Date of creation: 31 May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2837

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Keywords: Public Health Promotion; Environmental Economics&Policies; Labor Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Economic Conditions and Volatility; Achieving Shared Growth; Governance Indicators; Environmental Economics&Policies; Inequality; Economic Theory&Research;

References

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  1. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
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  3. Padma Desai (ed.), 1997. "Going Global: Transition from Plan to Market in the World Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262041618, December.
  4. Beck, T.H.L. & Levine, R. & Loayza, N., 2000. "Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125519, Tilburg University.
  5. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
  6. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley, 2000. "Inflation and the poor," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2335, The World Bank.
  7. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. " Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
  9. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Governance matters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2196, The World Bank.
  10. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  11. Ravallion, Martin & Shaohua Chen, 1996. "What can new survey data tell us about recent changes in distribution and poverty?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1694, The World Bank.
  12. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  13. Hongyi Li & Lyn Squire & Tao Zhang & Heng-fu Zou, 1999. "A Data Set on Income Distribution," CEMA Working Papers 575, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  14. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Goldbaum, David, 2008. "Coordinated investing with feedback and learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 202-223, February.
  2. Klaus Deininger & Songqing Jin, 2008. "Land Sales and Rental Markets in Transition: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 67-101, 02.
  3. Eric Edmonds & Nina Pavcnik, 2002. "Does Globalization Increase Child Labor? Evidence from Vietnam," NBER Working Papers 8760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Patricia Justino & Julie Litchfield, 2003. "Poverty Dynamics in Rural Vietnam: Winners and Losers During Reform," PRUS Working Papers 10, Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, University of Sussex.

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