Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Do Banks provision for bad loans in good times? empirical evidence and policy implications

Contents:

Author Info

  • Cavallo, Michele
  • Majnoni, Giovanni
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Recent debate about the pro-cyclical effects of bank capital requirements, has ignored the important role that bank loan loss provisions play in the overall framework of minimum capital regulation. It is frequently observed that under-provisioning, due to inadequate assessment of expected credit losses, aggravates the negative effect of minimum capital requirements during recessions, because capital must absorb both expected, and unexpected losses. Moreover, when expected losses are properly reflected in lending rates, but not in provisioning practices, fluctuations in bank earnings magnify true oscillations in bank profitability. The relative agency problems faced by different stakeholders, may help explain the prevailing, and often unsatisfactory institutional arrangements. The authors test their hypotheses with a sample of 1,176 large commercial banks - 372 of them in non-G10 countries - for the period 1988-99. After controlling for different country-specific macroeconomic, and institutional features, they find robust evidence among G10 banks, of a positive association between loan loss provisions, and banks'pre-provision income. Such evidence is not confirmed for non-G10 banks, which on average, provision too little in good times, and are forced to increase provisions in bad times. The econometric evidence shows that the protection of outsiders'claims - the claims of minority shareholders in common law countries, and of fiscal authorities in countries with high public debt - on bank income, has negative effects on the level of bank provisions.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2001/07/27/000094946_01071204123124/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2619.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 30 Jun 2001
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2619

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
    Phone: (202) 477-1234
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Banks&Banking Reform; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Economic Theory&Research; Financial Intermediation; Banks&Banking Reform; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Economic Theory&Research; Insurance&Risk Mitigation;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Holmstrom, Bengt & Tirole, Jean, 2000. "Liquidity and Risk Management," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 295-319, August.
    2. Chiuri, Maria Concetta & Ferri, Giovanni & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "The macroeconomic impact of bank capital requirements in emerging economies - past evidence to assess the future," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2605, The World Bank.
    3. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1998. "Law and Finance," Scholarly Articles 3451310, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Kim, Daesik & Santomero, Anthony M., 1993. "Forecasting required loan loss reserves," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(3-4), pages 315-329.
    5. Timothy W. Koch & Larry D. Wall, 1999. "Banks' discretionary loan loss provisions: how important are constraints and asymmetries?," Proceedings 618, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Larry D. Wall & Timothy W. Koch, 2000. "Bank loan-loss accounting: a review of theoretical and empirical evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 1-20.
    8. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Loan Review, Provisioning, and Macroeconomic Linkages," IMF Working Papers 00/195, International Monetary Fund.
    10. repec:imf:imfpdp:9606 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hesna Genay, 1998. "Assessing the condition of Japanese banks: how informative are accounting earnings?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 12-34.
    12. James T. Moser, 1998. "Credit derivatives: just-in-time provisioning for loan losses," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 2-11.
    13. Simon Kwan & Randy O'Toole, 1997. "Recent developments in loan loss provisioning at U.S. commercial banks," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul25.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00115622 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Beckmann, Rainer, 2007. "Profitability of Western European banking systems: panel evidence on structural and cyclical determinants," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    3. Darren Pain, 2003. "The provisioning experience of the major UK banks: a small panel investigation," Bank of England working papers 177, Bank of England.
    4. Verónica Balzarotti & Alejandra Anastasi, 2011. "Regulatory Solutions to Bank Loans Pro-Cyclicality. Is the Cure Worse than the Illness?," BCRA Working Paper Series 201154, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    5. Rojas-Suarez, Liliana, 2002. "Can international capital standards strengthen banks in emerging markets?," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 5, pages 51-63.
    6. Linda S. Goldberg, 2007. "Financial sector FDI and host countries: new and old lessons," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 1-17.
    7. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June.
    8. Fonseca, Ana Rosa & González, Francisco, 2008. "Cross-country determinants of bank income smoothing by managing loan-loss provisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 217-228, February.
    9. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2006. "Banks'procyclicality behavior : does provisioning matter ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    10. Wilko Bolt & Leo de Haan & Marco Hoeberichts & Maarten van Oordt & Job Swank, 2010. "Bank Profitability during Recessions," DNB Working Papers 251, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2014. "Bank income smoothing, ownership concentration and the regulatory environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-270.
    12. Shen, Chung-Hua & Chen, Ting-Hsuan, 2010. "Estimating banking cost efficiency with the consideration of cost management," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 424-435, November.
    13. Stefanelli, Valeria & Matteo, Cotugno, 2010. "An Empirical Analysis on Board Monitoring Role and Loan Portfolio Quality Measurement in Banks," MPRA Paper 29766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chakraborty, Suparna & Allen, Linda, 2007. "Revisiting the Level Playing Field: International Lending Responses to Divergences in Japanese Bank Capital Regulations from the Basel Accord," MPRA Paper 1805, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2619. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.