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Corruption, composition of capital flows, and currency crises

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Author Info
Shang-Jin Wei

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Abstract

Crony capitalism and international creditors'self-fulfilling expectations are often suggested as rival explanations for currency crises. A possible link between the two has not been explored. The author shows one channel through which crony capitalism can increase the chance of a currency/financial crisis by altering the composition of capital inflows. Using data on bilateral foreign direct investment and bilateral bank loans, the author finds clear evidence that in corrupt countries the composition of capital inflows is relatively light in foreign direct investment. Earlier studies indicated that a country with a capital inflow structure is more likely to run into a currency crisis down the road (partly through international creditors'self-fulfilling expectations). Therefore, crony capitalism, through its effect on the composition of a country's capital inflows, makes the country more vulnerable to currency crises brought about by self-fulfilling expectations. Corruption may also weaken domestic financial supervision, with a subsequent deterioration in the quality in banks'and firms'balance sheets.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2429.

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Date of creation: 31 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2429

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Keywords: International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Banks&Banking Reform; Decentralization; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Economic Theory&Research; International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Economic Theory&Research; Governance Indicators; Banks&Banking Reform; Foreign Direct Investment;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Pranab Bardhan, 1997. "Corruption and Development: A Review of Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1320-1346, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Daniel Kaufmann & Shang-Jin Wei, 1999. "Does "Grease Money" Speed Up the Wheels of Commerce?," NBER Working Papers 7093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Mauro, Paolo, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tornell, Aaron, 1990. "Real vs. financial investment can Tobin taxes eliminate the irreversibility distortion?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 419-444, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 1998. "A pecking order of capital inflows and international tax principles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 45-68, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1999. "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing," Working Papers 99018, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-1), pages 1-90. [Downloadable!]
  10. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1999. "Exchange-Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 19-38, Autumn.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Wasseem Mina & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2006. "Contract Enforcement, Institutional Stability, and the Level and Maturity of International Debt," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0617, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Margaret S. McMillan & Andrew R. Waxman, 2007. "Profit Sharing Between Governments and Multinationals in Natural Resource Extraction: Evidence From a Firm-Level Panel," NBER Working Papers 13332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2005. "Capital Flows in a Globalized World: The Role of Policies and Institutions," NBER Working Papers 11696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Bai, Chong-en & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "The quality of bureaucracy and capital account policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2575, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Norbert Funke & Faisal Ahmed & Rabah Arezki, 2005. "The Composition of Capital Flows: Is South Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 05/40, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stephane Straub, 2004. "Opportunism, Corruption and the Multinational Firm’s Mode of Entry," ESE Discussion Papers 102, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Laura Alfaro & Vadym Volosovych, 2003. "Why doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 2003-01, Department of Economics, University of Houston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Uluc Aysun & Adam Honig, 2008. "Bankruptcy Costs, Liability Dollarization, and Vulnerability to Sudden Stops," Working papers 2008-41, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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