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Contractual savings or stock market development - Which leads?

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Author Info
Catalan, Mario
Impavido, Gregorio
Musalem, Alberto R.

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Abstract

The authors study the relationship between the development of contractual savings (assets of pension funds, and life insurance companies) and non-life insurance, and, the development of stock markets (market capitalization and value traded). Their contribution lies in providing time-series evidence on a hypothesis that is very popular - but had not been substantiated - among supporters of fully funded pension systems in which funds invest large shares of their portfolios in tradable securities (equities, bonds). The literature is not clear on its assumption regarding causality between contractual savings, and capital market development. A one-way or two-way relationship is assumed, usually inter-changeably; the authors address the questions of which leads empirically. They present the evidence, including descriptive statistics, and the results of Granger causality tests, for OECD countries, and such countries as Chile, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa, and Thailand. They do not present a theoretical framework, but do explain how the growth of the contractual savings sector, is thought to promote financial development. The authors find evidence in the data that causality between institutions, and markets either does not exist, or, if it exists, runs predominantly from institutions to markets. To a lesser extent, there is simultaneous causality between institutions, and markets. Furthermore, there is limited evidence that causality runsonly from markets to institutions (the only exception seems to be for non-life insurance in developing countries). Results seem to support the idea that the development of institutional investors, is likely to promote the growth of market capitalization, more than that of value traded. In developing countries, there seems to be no causality from pension funds to growth in value traded, while there is causality from life, and non-life insurance.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2421.

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Date of creation: 31 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2421

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Related research
Keywords: International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Financial Intermediation; Financial Intermediation; Contractual Savings; Insurance Law; Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
    Other versions:
  3. Feldstein, Martin, 1978. "Do private pensions increase national savings?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 277-293, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Boyd, John & Smith, Bruce, 1996. "The Coevolution of the Real and Financial Sectors in the Growth Process," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 371-96, May.
    Other versions:
  5. Impavido, Gregorio & Musalem, Alberto R., 2000. "Contractual savings, stock, and asset markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2490, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Anil Kashyap & Raghuram Rajan & Jeremy S. Stein, 1998. "Banks as liquidity providers: an explanation for the co-existence of lending and deposit-taking," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 90-112.
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  7. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock market development and long-run growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1582, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Andrew A. Samwick, 2000. "Is Pension Reform Conducive to Higher Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 264-272, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jeanine Bailliu & Helmut Reisen, 1997. "Do Funded Pensions Contribute to Higher Aggregate Savings?: A Cross-Country Analysis," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 130, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Levine, Ross, 1996. "Stock Markets, Corporate Finance, and Economic Growth: An Overview," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 223-39, May.
  13. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Fama, Eugene F., 1985. "What's different about banks?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-39, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Munnell, Alicia H, 1976. "Private Pensions and Saving: New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 1013-32, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Vittas, Dimitri & Skully, Michael, 1991. "Overview of contractual savings institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 605, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Philip R. Gerson & G. A. Mackenzie & Alfredo Cuevas, 1997. "Pension Regimes and Saving," IMF Occasional Papers 153, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financing Choices of Firms," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 341-69, May.
  19. : Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 1998. "Does Pension Reform Really Spur Productivity, Saving, and Growth?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 33, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Claessens, Stijn & Klingebiel, Daniela & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2002. "Explaining the migration of stocks from exchanges in emerging economies to international centers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2816, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Impavido, Gregorio & Musalem, Alberto R. & Vittas, Dimitri, 2002. "Contractual savings in countries with a small financial sector," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2841, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Anna Zalewska, 2006. "Is Locking Domestic Funds into the Local Market Beneficial? Evidence from the Polish Pension Reforms," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 06/153, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
  4. E Philip Davis & Yuwei Hu, 2004. "Is There A Link Between Pension-Fund Assets And Economic Growth? - A Cross-Country Study," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-23, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Kuhan Harichandra & S. M. Thangavelu, 2004. "Institutional Investors, Financial Sector Development And Economic Growth in OECD Countries," Departmental Working Papers wp0405, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. E Philip Davis, 2005. "The Role Of Pension Funds As Institutional Investors In Emerging Markets," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-18, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kendall, Jake, 2009. "Local financial development and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4838, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Impavido, Gregorio & Musalem, Alberto R., 2000. "Contractual savings, stock, and asset markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2490, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Peter Haiss & Kjell Sümegi, 2008. "The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Europe: a theoretical and empirical analysis," Empirica, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 405-431, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Brigitte Granville & Sushanta Mallick, 2004. "Pension reforms and saving gains in the United Kingdom," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 123-136, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Vittas, Dimitri, 2002. "Policies to promote saving for retirement : a synthetic overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2801, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jorge Roldos, 2007. "Pension Reform and Macroeconomic Stability in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 07/108, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. de la Torre, Augusto & Gozzi, Juan Carlos & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2007. "Stock market development under globalization : whither the gains from reforms ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4184, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Impavido, Gregorio & Musalem, Alberto R. & Tressel, Thierry, 2003. "The impact of contractual savings institutions on securities markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2948, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Impavido, Gregorio & Musalem, Alberto R. & Tressel, Thierry, 2001. "Contractual savings institutions and banks'stability and efficiency," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2751, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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