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Capital flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union

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  • Claessens,Constantijn A.
  • Oks, Daniel
  • Polastri, Rossana

Abstract

The capital flows to Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU) represent a relatively small, albeit growing share of capital flows to developing countries. Taking all flows together, the total net flows to these 25 countries (Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan) were about $44 billion in 1996 or about 1/8 of aggregate net flows to all developing countries. These countries accounted, however, for about 20 and 22 percent respectively of all developing countries Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and exports in 1996. As a fraction of their GDP, total inflows were consequently smaller than for many other developing countries, and averaged about 5.4 percent over the 1990-96 periods. In more recent years, there has been a more rapid inflow of private capital, as reform efforts have consolidated and economic prospects improved and, for some countries, as European Union (EU) integration became a possibility for the near future. For some countries, short-term capital has recently become an important source of external financing. Since most countries have been late comers to the phenomenon of large private capital inflows, they have not experienced much of the overheating phenomena which have affected other developing countries in the past (Latin America) and recently (East Asia). The paper is organized as follows. Section IIbriefly describes the facts on capital flows to these countries. Section III discusses important links and relationships between macroeconomic variables and the capital flows, including some of the basic motivations, and causes for capital flows. Section IV describes and analyzes the policy framework and policy responses in those countries that received the bulk of capital flows. Econometric tests are presented in section V, while section VI discusses the issues which may be arising with capital flows in these countries in the future and provides some conclusions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1976.

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Date of creation: 30 Sep 1998
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1976

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Keywords: Capital Markets and Capital Flows; Banks&Banking Reform; International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Economic Theory&Research; Capital Flows; Banks&Banking Reform; Macroeconomic Management; Economic Theory&Research; Settlement of Investment Disputes;

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  1. Dorothy M. Sobol, 1996. "Central and Eastern Europe: financial markets and private capital flows," Research Paper 9626, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
  3. Stijn Claessens & R. Kyle Peters, 1997. "State enterprise performance and soft budget constraints: The case of Bulgaria," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(2), pages 305-322, November.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  5. Taylor, Mark P & Sarno, Lucio, 1997. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 11(3), pages 451-70, September.
  6. Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Selowsky, Marcelo & Martin, Ricardo, 1997. "Policy Performance and Output Growth in the Transition Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 349-53, May.
  8. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Low Investment and Large LDC Debt in the 1980's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 437-49, June.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s," MPRA Paper 7577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan, 1996. "Patterns of Transition from Plan to Market," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 10(3), pages 397-424, September.
  11. Easterly, William & da Cunha, Paulo Viera & DEC, 1994. "Financing the storm : macroeconomic crisis in Russia, 1992-93," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1240, The World Bank.
  12. De Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet, 1997. "Monetary policy during transition : an overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1706, The World Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sõrg, Mart, 2007. "Estonia's high current account deficit has special reasons," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 13/2007, Ernst Moritz Arndt University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
  2. Carmen Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 9-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 2000. "Measuring Real Economic Effects of Bailouts: Historical Perspectives on How Countries in Financial Distress Have Fared With and Without Bailouts," NBER Working Papers 7701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Talley, Samuel & Giugale, Marcelo M. & Polastri, Rossana, 1998. "Capital inflow reversals, banking stability, and prudential regulation in Central and Eastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2023, The World Bank.
  5. Kashif Mansori, 2003. "Following in their Footsteps: Comparing Interest Parity Conditions in Central European Economies to the Euro Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 1020, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan & Taner M. Yigit, 2004. "The Effects of Transition and Political Instability On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Central Europe and the Balkans," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp729, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  7. Jaap Bos & Mindel van de Laar, 2004. "Explaining Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe: an Extended Gravity Approach," DNB Working Papers, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department 008, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. Carlos Andrés Amaya & Peter Rowland, . "Determinants of Investment Flows into Emerging Markets," Borradores de Economia 313, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  9. Carlos Andrés Amaya G. & Peter Rowland, 2004. "Determinants Of Investment Flows Into Emerging Markets," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002334, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Fidel Pérez Sebastián & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2005. "Sovereign Risk, Fdi Spillovers, And Economic Growth," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-27, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

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