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How moving to world prices affects the terms of trade in 15 countries of the former Soviet Union

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  • Tarr, David G.

Abstract

The author presents the first documented estimates of how moving to international trade prices effects the terms of trade in 15 countries of the former Soviet Union. First, he decomposes the total impact of a change in the inter-republic and extra-republic terms of trade. The broad pattern, he estimates, is that exporters of raw material and energy (notably Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan) gain, whereas countries that concentrate in food and machinery exports (notably the Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and especially Moldova) are the biggest losers. The results support the customs union theory of pricing within the CMEA. The author also estimates the initial impact of terms of trade on the GDP for all 15 countries. This, as well as the commodity composition of trade and estimated changes in relative prices by commodity at the 105-sector and 15-sector levels for each of the 15 independent states, is available in the appendix.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1074.

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Date of creation: 31 Jan 1993
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1074

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Related research

Keywords: Access to Markets; Economic Theory&Research; TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT; Environmental Economics&Policies; Trade Policy;

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References

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  1. Brada, Josef C., 1985. "Soviet subsidization of Eastern Europe: The primacy of economics over politics?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 80-92, March.
  2. Desai, Padma, 1986. "Is the Soviet Union subsidizing Eastern Europe?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 107-116, February.
  3. Brada, Josef C., 1988. "Interpreting the Soviet subsididzation of Eastern Europe," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 639-658, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tarr, David, 2007. "Russian WTO accession : what has been accomplished, what can be expected," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 4428, The World Bank.
  2. Marina Bakanova & L\303\272cio Vinhas de Souza, 2001. "Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization, The Case of Belarus," International Trade, EconWPA 0108005, EconWPA.
  3. Pomfret, Richard, 2000. "Agrarian Reform in Uzbekistan: Why Has the Chinese Model Failed to Deliver?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 269-84, January.
  4. Lev Freinkman & Evgeny Polyakov & Carolina Revenco, 2004. "Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14933, August.
  5. Avanesyan, Vahram & Freinkman, Lev, 2002. "Costing-out the Big Bang: Impact of external shocks on the Armenian economy at the outset of transition," MPRA Paper 10012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Langhammer, Rolf J. & L├╝cke, Matthias, 1995. "Trade among the Post-Soviet states: evolution and policy issues," Kiel Working Papers 708, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Alexander Granberg & Victor Suslov & Larisa Melnikova, 1998. "Equilibrium, kernel, integration in the multiregional system under liberalization of external trade," ERSA conference papers ersa98p127, European Regional Science Association.
  8. Shepotylo, Oleksandr & Tarr, David, 2007. "The structure of import tariffs in the Russian Federation : 2001-05," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 4265, The World Bank.
  9. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 1993. "The disintegration of the ruble zone: Driving forces and proposals for policy change," Kiel Working Papers 585, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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