Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Demographic Forces Shaping New Zealand’s Future. What Population Ageing [really] Means

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

This paper outlines the key demographic forces shaping New Zealand’s future. It ranges broadly across birth rates, life expectancy and migration to show how this converging demography will result in a regionally-disparate future. It identifies a migration-driven bite in New Zealand’s age structure across the young adult ages that is pronounced in non-urban areas, and argues that while rural regions have long lost young adults and sun-belt regions gained older, what differs is that this phenomenon is now occurring alongside population ageing, rendering such age structures no longer conducive to growth. The converging trends will not only make responding to baby boomer retirement more difficult but will increase competition for workers and push up labour and consumption costs. With the exception of larger urban areas and some retirement zones, it shows that sub national growth in much of New Zealand has already ended and that this scenario will continue to unfold until zero growth or population decline embraces all but the major urban areas. This is despite a national growth rate which is currently near equal the annual global growth rate. The paper posits that it is time to re-evaluate the question ‘when does population growth ‘end’?’

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: ftp://mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/nidaea/wp-1.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Waikato, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis in its series NIDEA Working Papers with number wp-1.

as in new window
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 13 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wai:nidaea:wp-1

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand, 3240
Phone: +64 (0)7 838 4040 (Administrator)
Fax: + 64 (0)7 838 4621
Email:
Web page: http://www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: population growth; population ageing; sub-national area;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Natalie Jackson, 2012. "Maori and the [potential] Demographic Dividend," NIDEA Working Papers wp-2, University of Waikato, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wai:nidaea:wp-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Brian Silverstone).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.