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Dynamic Modelling of a Three-Sector Transitional Economy

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Abstract

Rural industry provides inputs and markets for agriculture, which in turn provides inputs and markets for rural industry. As the mutually supportive linkages between rural industry and agriculture develop, the size of both sectors increases. Under certain conditions rural industry grows more rapidly than agriculture, resulting in the structural transformation of the rural sector. But the growth of rural industry may hurt the state-owned industrial sector if both sectors compete for similar resources and product markets. To protect their state enterprises, transitional economies have at times suppressed the growth of non-state rural industries. This can hurt the economy overall. We show how the growth rates of agriculture and rural industry may decline, and, surprisingly, how the growth of state industry might fall if rural industry is suppressed. This is especially so if agriculture supports state industry. By suppressing rural industry, agriculture is hurt. The decline in agriculture then hurts state industry, undermining the objective of protecting state industry. Depending on the magnitude of the relevant impacts, intervention to protect state industry may or may not be optimal, leaving governments with difficult policy decisions.

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File URL: ftp://mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/econwp/0101.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Waikato, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 01/01.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 30 Oct 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:01/01

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Keywords: dynamics; intersectoral interactions; transitional economies;

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  1. Rawski, Thomas G, 1994. "Chinese Industrial Reform: Accomplishments, Prospects, and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 271-75, May.
  2. Vogel, Stephen J, 1994. "Structural Changes in Agriculture: Production Linkages and Agricultural Demand-Led Industrialization," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 136-56, January.
  3. Woo Wing Thye, 1994. "The Art of Reforming Centrally Planned Economies: Comparing China, Poland, and Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 276-308, June.
  4. Chen, Kang & Jefferson, Gary H. & Singh, Inderjit, 1992. "Lessons from China's economic reform," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 201-225, June.
  5. Ranis, Gustav & Stewart, Frances, 1993. "Rural nonagricultural activities in development : Theory and application," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 75-101, February.
  6. Rozelle Scott, 1994. "Rural Industrialization and Increasing Inequality: Emerging Patterns in China's Reforming Economy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 362-391, December.
  7. Naughton Barry, 1994. "What Is Distinctive about China's Economic Transition? State Enterprise Reform and Overall System Transformation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 470-490, June.
  8. Putterman, Louis, 1992. "Dualism and Reform in China," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 467-93, April.
  9. Islam, Rizwanul & Hehui, Jin, 1994. "Rural industrialization: An engine of prosperity in postreform rural China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(11), pages 1643-1662, November.
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