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The short-run nationwide Macroeconomic effects of the Canterbury earthquakes

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  • Doyle, Lisa
  • Noy, Ilan
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Abstract

We examine the short-run impact of the Canterbury earthquakes (4/9/2010, and 22/2/2011) on the New Zealand economy using VAR macro-models. Maybe surprisingly, we find little evidence of a pronounced impact on the aggregate economy. Our results suggest that the earthquakes reduced CPI inflation moderately, and the first earthquake had a small but short-lived, adverse effect on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. At the very worse, it appears that policies (by the government and the Reserve Bank) have been successful in mitigating any serious adverse impact. The more significant impact of the earthquakes is to be found at the regional level.

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File URL: http://researcharchive.vuw.ac.nz/handle/10063/2677
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Paper Series with number 2677.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:2677

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Postal: Alice Fong, Administrator, School of Economics and Finance, Victoria Business School, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600 Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64 (4) 463-5353
Fax: +64 (4) 463-5014
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Web page: http://www.victoria.ac.nz/sef
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Keywords: Canterbury earthquakes; short-run; natural disasters; macroeconomic variables;

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  1. Strobl, Eric, 2012. "The economic growth impact of natural disasters in developing countries: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Central American and Caribbean regions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-141.
  2. Miles Parker & Daan Steenkamp, 2012. "The economic impact of the Canterbury earthquakes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 13-25, September.
  3. Loayza, Norman V. & Olaberría, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Growth: Going Beyond the Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1317-1336.
  4. Coffman, Makena & Noy, Ilan, 2012. "Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 187-205, April.
  5. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Dumas, Patrice, 2009. "Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 777-786, January.
  6. Jacob Vigdor, 2008. "The Economic Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 135-54, Fall.
  7. Horwich, George, 2000. "Economic Lessons of the Kobe Earthquake," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 521-42, April.
  8. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
  9. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
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