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Stylised facts for New Zealand business cycles: A post-1987 perspective

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  • McKelvie, S.
  • Hall, Viv B.

Abstract

Key features of NZ business cycles were established for the period 1966q4 to 1990q1 by Kim, Buckle and Hall (1994) (KBH), but the conduct of fiscal, monetary and labour market policy and the behaviour of New Zealand's economy have changed considerably since then. Our results for the period 1987q2 to 2010q4 show a reduction in volatility and a rise in persistence for both the real economy and for price and monetary variables. Government sector, open economy, monetary and labour market results differ from those advanced in KBH. Overall, we establish a more credible set of benchmark regularities, to help underpin the construction and use of contemporary NZ macroeconomic models.

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File URL: http://researcharchive.vuw.ac.nz/handle/10063/2364
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Paper Series with number 2364.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:2364

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Postal: Alice Fong, Administrator, School of Economics and Finance, Victoria Business School, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600 Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64 (4) 463-5353
Fax: +64 (4) 463-5014
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Web page: http://www.victoria.ac.nz/sef
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Keywords: Business cycle stylised facts; New Zealand; Growth cycle analysis;

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  1. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1992. "International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," Working Papers 92-5, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  2. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  3. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2007. "The Identification Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Structural Var," CAMA Working Papers 2007-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Mark Crosby & Glenn Otto, 1995. "Real Business Cycle Models: An Introduction," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 28(3), pages 55-70.
  5. Viv Hall & Kunhong Kim & Robert Buckle, 1998. "Pacific rim business cycle analysis: Synchronisation and volatility," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 129-159.
  6. Diebold & Rudebusch, . "Measuring Business Cycle: A Modern Perspective," Home Pages _061, University of Pennsylvania.
  7. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1988. "Examining Alternative Macroeconomic Theories," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 207-270.
  8. Fisher, Lance A & Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M, 1996. "Australian Business Cycle Facts," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(67), pages 300-320, December.
  9. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  10. Iris Claus & Aaron Gill & Boram Lee & Nathan McLellan, 2006. "An empirical investigation of fiscal policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/08, New Zealand Treasury.
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  12. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve," Working Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  13. Hall, Viv B. & McDermott, C. John, 2009. "The New Zealand Business Cycle," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 1050-1069, August.
  14. Tawadros, George B., 2011. "The stylised facts of Australia's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 549-556, January.
  15. VIV. B. HALL & C. JOHN McDERMOTT, 2011. "Unobserved Components Business Cycles for New Zealand. What Are They, and What Might Drive Them?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(277), pages 294-317, 06.
  16. Michael Reddell & Cath, Sleeman, 2008. "Some perspectives on past recessions," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 71, June.
  17. Tawadros, George B., 2011. "The stylised facts of Australia's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 549-556.
  18. Sharon McCaw, 2007. "Stylised facts about New Zealand business cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  19. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Willy Chetwin & Tim Ng & Daan Steenkamp, 2013. "New Zealand’s short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility: drivers and policy implications," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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