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Banking crises and sudden stops: What could IMF do to assist?

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  • Chang, Chia-Ying

Abstract

Along the studies suggesting IMF to promote private capital flows, this paper sheds light on the links of banking crisis and sudden stops and provides suggestions which are flexible and more specific for countries in various situations of sudden stops. In this overlapping generation framework in an open economy with international credit markets, both the default risks of firms’ loan repayment, and the possibilities of bank runs are considered. As a result, there are good and bad equilibriums, depending on whether bank runs would occur in the lifetime. In the four bad equilibrium discussed in the paper, sudden stops may be unnecessary or unavoidable coinside with the expectation of bank runs, which may or may not occur as expected. There are bad equilibriums in which sudden stops are unnecessary. These are the cases when IMF’s assistance could prevent sudden stops, and the repayment to IMF’s short-term lending facilities can be guaranteed. In the bad equilibriums when bank runs are unavoidable and when sudden stops cannot be prevented and may last for a long period of time, it could be very costly to assist countries in such equilibrium without certain policies becoming effective. Assisting several countries under this circumstances all together could jeopardize IMF’s situation. These findings are consistent with those in [Eichengreen, Guptam and Mody (2006)], and the suggestions for countries in various situations are more specific.

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File URL: http://researcharchive.vuw.ac.nz/handle/10063/2063
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Paper Series with number 2063.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:2063

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Postal: Alice Fong, Administrator, School of Economics and Finance, Victoria Business School, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600 Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64 (4) 463-5353
Fax: +64 (4) 463-5014
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Web page: http://www.victoria.ac.nz/sef
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Keywords: bank runs; international capital flows; credit markets; sudden stops; IMF;

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References

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  1. Bruce Champ & Bruce D. Smith & Stephen D. Williamson, 1996. "Currency Elasticity and Banking Panics: Theory and Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(4), pages 828-64, November.
  2. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  4. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 2002. "Balance-Sheet Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 46-50, May.
  5. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Banks, debt maturity and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 169-194, June.
  6. Schreft, Stacey L. & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Money, Banking, and Capital Formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 157-182, March.
  7. Judith A. Chevalier & David S. Scharfstein, 1994. "Capital Market Imperfections and Countercyclical Markups: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Joseph P Joyce & Ilan Noy, 2005. "The IMF and the Liberalization of Capital Flows," Economics Study Area Working Papers 84, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
  9. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2001. "A Model Of Financial Crises In Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517, May.
  10. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  11. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1986. "Banking Theory, Deposit Insurance, and Bank Regulation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(1), pages 55-68, January.
  12. Chang, Chia-Ying, 2012. "When banking systems meet currencies," Working Paper Series 2062, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
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