Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Home Bias in Currency Forecasts

Contents:

Author Info

  • Yu-chin Chen
  • Kwok Ping Tsang
  • Wen Jen Tsay

Abstract

The "home bias" phenomenon states that empirically, economic agents often under- utilize opportunities beyond their country borders, and it is well-documented in various international pricing and purchase patterns. This bias manifests in the forms of fewer exchanges of goods and net equity-holdings, as well as less arbitrage of price differences across borders than theoretically predicted to be optimal. Our paper documents another form of home bias, where market participants appear to under-weigh information beyond their borders when making currency forecasts. Using monthly data from 1995 to 2010 for seven major exchange rates relative to the US dollar, we show that excess currency returns and the errors in investors' consensus forecasts not only depend on the interest differentials between the pair of countries, but they depend more strongly on interest rates in a broader set of countries. A global short interest differential and a global long interest differential are driving the results.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: ftp://repec.econ.vt.edu/Papers/Salehi-Isfahani/ReturnsEducation.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number e07-18.

as in new window
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vpi:wpaper:e07-18

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 3016 Pamplin Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061-0316
Phone: 540-231-9636
Fax: 540-231-5097
Web page: http://www.econ.vt.edu
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Survey Data; Excess Currency Returns; Global Shock;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  2. Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," CREATES Research Papers 2010-21, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Emmanuel Farhi, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," 2008 Meeting Papers 47, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February.
  6. Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2005. "The Cross-Section Of Foreign Currency Risk Premia And Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-019, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  7. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2007. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think," NBER Working Papers 13318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal & Loungani, Prakash, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," MPRA Paper 22065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 185-205, March.
  10. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Trend and cycle in bond premia," Staff Report 424, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2010. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers e07-19, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  12. Michael B Devereux & Gregor W Smith & James Yetman, 2009. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," BIS Working Papers 295, Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
  14. Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, 2009. "Poverty, inequality, and populist politics in Iran," Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-28, March.
  15. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
  16. Djavad Salehi-Isfahani & Daniel Egel, 2007. "Youth Exclusion in Iran: The State of Education, Employment and Family Formation," Working Papers e07-2, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  17. Fatma El-Hamidi, 2006. "General or Vocational Schooling? Evidence on School Choice, Returns, and 'Sheepskin' Effects from Egypt 1998," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 157-176.
  18. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vpi:wpaper:e07-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Djavad Salehi-Isfahani).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.