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Extrapolative Projections of Mortality: Towards a More Consistent Method

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  • Dalkhat M. Ediev
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    Abstract

    After a comparative study of the Lee-Carter forecasting method and looking into the direct extrapolation of mortality by age and sex, this paper advocates the use of the latter method. The method is, however, supplemented by additional procedures in order to improve its efficiency in the short run and preclude implausible mortality patterns in the long run. The short-run efficiency is improved by building the forecast on data from the most recent periods of age/sex-specific duration, when the mortality dynamics exhibit a steady trend. In the long run, the rates of the decline in mortality are assumed to converge to a plausible function of age and sex, which is derived from the data based on the assumption that it is a monotonic function of age. The framework proposed also provides a natural basis for developing multi-regional projection methods and also for introducing uncertainty into the projection.

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    File URL: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/download/WP2008_03.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna in its series Working Papers with number 0803.

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    Length: 52 pages
    Date of creation: May 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:vid:wpaper:0803

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    Web page: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/

    Related research

    Keywords: Mortality forecasting; direct extrapolation; age-specific death rates; Lee-Carter method;

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    1. John Bongaarts, 2005. "Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods," Demography, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 23-49, February.
    2. Robert McNown & Andrei Rogers, 1989. "Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach," Demography, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 645-660, November.
    3. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. & Bos, Eduard & Stephens, Patience W. & My T. Vu, 1989. "Projecting mortality for all countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 337, The World Bank.
    4. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
    5. France Meslé & Jacques Vallin, 2002. "Mortality in Europe: the Divergence Between East and West," Population (english edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 57(1), pages 157-197.
    6. Nathan Keyfitz, 1993. "Thirty years of demography and Demography," Demography, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 533-549, November.
    7. Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.
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