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Modelling the Duration of Interest Rate Spells Under Inflation Targeting in Canada

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Abstract

We use survival models to analyze the duration of the spells associated with the interest rate used by the Bank of Canada as its monetary policy instrument. Both non-parametric and parametric models are estimated, allowing for right-censoring of the data, and time-varying covariates. We find that the data are explained well by an accelerated failure time Weibull model, with the annual rate of inflation and the quarterly rate of growth in GDP as covariates. The model indicates that there is positive duration dependence in the interest rate spells, and that unemployment and exchange rate effects are insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruby Shih & David E. A. Giles, 2006. "Modelling the Duration of Interest Rate Spells Under Inflation Targeting in Canada," Econometrics Working Papers 0605, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    • Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0605
    Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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    File URL: https://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/_assets/docs/econometrics/ewp0605.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Giles, 2007. "Survival of the hippest: life at the top of the hot 100," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(15), pages 1877-1887.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October.
    3. Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Layoffs, Recall and the Duration of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Dib, Ali, 2006. "Nominal rigidities and monetary policy in Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 303-325, June.
    5. Kennan, John, 1985. "The duration of contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 5-28, April.
    6. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    7. Tiff Macklem, 2001. "A New Measure of Core Inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2001(Autumn), pages 3-12.
    8. Jiri Jonas & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects," NBER Working Papers 9667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "How Does Monetary Policy Change? Evidence On Inflation-Targeting Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 593-630, April.
    2. Yang Ni & Shasha Guo & David Giles, 2010. "Capital structures in an emerging market: a duration analysis of the time interval between IPO and SEO in China," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(19), pages 1531-1545.
    3. Guo, Yingwen & Zhou Z.F., Sherry, 2011. "Duration Analysis of Interest Rate Spells : Cross-National Study of Interest Rate Policy," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 52(1), pages 1-11, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation target; survival analysis; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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