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Modelling the Duration of Interest Rate Spells Under Inflation Targeting in Canada

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Author Info
Ruby Shih () (Department of Economics, University of Victoria)
David E. A. Giles () (Department of Economics, University of Victoria)

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Abstract

We use survival models to analyze the duration of the spells associated with the interest rate used by the Bank of Canada as its monetary policy instrument. Both non-parametric and parametric models are estimated, allowing for right-censoring of the data, and time-varying covariates. We find that the data are explained well by an accelerated failure time Weibull model, with the annual rate of inflation and the quarterly rate of growth in GDP as covariates. The model indicates that there is positive duration dependence in the interest rate spells, and that unemployment and exchange rate effects are insignificant.

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File URL: http://web.uvic.ca/econ/research/papers/ewp0605.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 0605.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 08 Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0605

Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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Postal: PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 2Y2
Phone: (250)721-8540
Fax: (250)721-6214
Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ
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Related research
Keywords: Inflation target; survival analysis; monetary policy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Layoffs, Recall and the Duration of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. David E. Giles, 2005. "Survival of the Hippest: Life at the Top of the Hot 100," Econometrics Working Papers 0507, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tiff Macklem, 2001. "A New Measure of Core Inflation," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2001(Autumn), pages 3-12. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kennan, John, 1985. "The duration of contract strikes in U.S. manufacturing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 5-28, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Dib, Ali, 2006. "Nominal rigidities and monetary policy in Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 303-325, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 2000. "MCIs and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1677-1700, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jiri Jonas & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Transition Countries: Experience and Prospects," NBER Working Papers 9667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.

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