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Government Size and Economic Growth: Time-Series Evidence for the United Kingdom, 1830-1993

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Abstract

This study considers the long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth for the United Kingdom over the period 1830 to 1993. The causality analysis allows for the effects of exports, and for the presence of complex structural breaks in the data. The results support the export-led growth hypothesis. Although support for Wagner’s Law is sensitive to the choice of sample period, there is evidence that GDP growth Granger-causes the share of government spending in GDP indirectly through exports’ share of GDP during the period 1870-1930.

Suggested Citation

  • Wing Yuk, 2005. "Government Size and Economic Growth: Time-Series Evidence for the United Kingdom, 1830-1993," Econometrics Working Papers 0501, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    • Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0501
    Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Fuad M.M Kreishan & Mohamed Sayed Abou Elseoud & Mohammad Selim, 2018. "Oil Revenue and State Budget Dynamic Relationship: Evidence from Bahrain," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 174-179.
    3. ZAREEN, SHUMAILA & Qayyum, Abdul, 2014. "An Analysis of the Impact of Government Size on Economic Growth of Pakistan: An Endogenous Growth," MPRA Paper 85426, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    4. Isiaq O. Oseni & Ibrahim A. Adekunle, 2020. "Relevance of Wagner’s Hypothesis in Achieving Sustainable Development Agenda in Nigeria," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/006, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    5. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter & Ioannis Kostakis, 2019. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in the United Kingdom during the Last Two Centuries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 269-291, April.
    6. Alina Cristina Nuta & Florian Marcel Nuta & Viorica Chirila & Angela Roman & Andy Corneliu Pusca, 2015. "Testing the Relationship between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth in Romania," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 11(4), pages 86-102, August.
    7. Kartika, Metasari, 2019. "Public Service and Micro-Small Enterprise Developments in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 91577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2010. "Wagner's law and Italian disaggregated public spending: some empirical evidences," MPRA Paper 26662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Isiaq O. Oseni & Ibrahim A. Adekunle, 2020. "Relevance of Wagner’s Hypothesis in Achieving Sustainable Development Agenda in Nigeria," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/006, African Governance and Development Institute..
    10. Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Reinvest the relationship between exports and economic growth in African countries: New insights from innovative econometric methods," MPRA Paper 108785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wagner's law; Granger causality; size of government; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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