Government Size and Economic Growth: Time-Series Evidence for the United Kingdom, 1830-1993
AbstractThis study considers the long-run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth for the United Kingdom over the period 1830 to 1993. The causality analysis allows for the effects of exports, and for the presence of complex structural breaks in the data. The results support the export-led growth hypothesis. Although support for Wagner’s Law is sensitive to the choice of sample period, there is evidence that GDP growth Granger-causes the share of government spending in GDP indirectly through exports’ share of GDP during the period 1870-1930.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 0501.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 17 Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Note: ISSN 1485-6441
Contact details of provider:
Postal: PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 2Y2
Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ
More information through EDIRC
Wagner's law; Granger causality; size of government; structural breaks;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
- O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giles, David E..A. & Tedds, Lindsay M. & Werkneh, Gugsa, 2002.
"The Canadian Underground and Measured Economies: Granger Causality Results,"
39786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David Giles & Lindsay Tedds & Gugsa Werkneh, 2002. "The Canadian underground and measured economies: Granger causality results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2347-2352.
- David E. A. Giles & Lindsay Tedds & Gugsa Werkneh, 1999. "The Canadian Underground and Measured Economies: Granger Causality Results," Econometrics Working Papers 9907, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
- Shantayanan Devarajan & Vinaya Swaroop & Heng-fu Zou, 1996.
"The composition of public expenditure and economic growth,"
CEMA Working Papers
77, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
- Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Spurious rejections by cointegration tests induced by structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1117-1121.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Seppo Pynnonen & Juuso Vataja, 2002. "Bootstrap testing for cointegration of international commodity prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 637-647.
- Barro, Robert J, 1990.
"Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S103-26, October.
- Barro, Robert J., 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth," Scholarly Articles 3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, R.J., 1988. "Government Spending In A Simple Model Of Endogenous Growth," RCER Working Papers 130, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Barro, R.J., 1989.
"Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries,"
RCER Working Papers
201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Vogelsang, T.J., 1994. "On Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of Additive Outliers," Papers 94-30, Cornell - Department of Economics.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Bharat Kolluri & Michael Panik & Mahmoud Wahab, 2000. "Government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1059-1068.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992.
"A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
- Rivera-Batiz, Luis A & Romer, Paul M, 1991.
"Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 531-55, May.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Khalifa Ghali, 1999. "Government size and economic growth: evidence from a multivariate cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 975-987.
- François Facchini & Mickaël Melki, 2011.
"Optimal Government Size and Economic Growth in France (1871-2008): An explanation by the State and Market Failures,"
Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne
11077, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
- François Facchini & Mickaël Melki, 2011. "Optimal government size and economic growth in France (1871-2008) : An explanation by the State and market failures," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00654363, HAL.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lori Cretney).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.