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Are Output Growth-Rate Distributions Fat-Tailed? Some Evidence from OECD Countries

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Author Info
Giorgio Fagiolo () (Corresponding author, Dipartimento di Scienze economiche (Università di Verona))
Mauro Napoletano ()
Andrea Roventini ()

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Abstract

This work explores some distributional properties of aggregate output growth-rate time series. We show that, in the majority of OECD countries, output growth-rate distributions are well-approximated by symmetric exponential-power densities with tails much fatter than those of a Gaussian. Fat tails robustly emerge in output growth rates independently of: (i) the way we measure aggregate output; (ii) the family of densities employed in the estimation; (iii) the length of time lags used to compute growth rates. We also show that fat tails still characterize output growth-rate distributions even after one washes away outliers, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Università di Verona, Dipartimento di Scienze economiche in its series Working Papers with number 36.

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Length: 39
Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:36

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Related research
Keywords: Output Growth-Rate Distributions; Normality; Fat Tails; Time Series; Exponential-Power Distributions; Laplace Distributions; Output Dynamics.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Massimo Riccaboni & Stefano Schiavo, 2009. "The Structure and Growth of Weighted Networks," Quantitative Finance Papers 0908.0348, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
  2. Matteo Barigozzi & Lucia Alessi & Marco Capasso & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2009. "The Distribution of Households Consumption-Expenditure Budget Shares," Working Paper Series 1061, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "The microfoundations of business cycles: an evolutionary, multi-agent model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 413-432, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2008. "The Great Moderation Flattens Fat Tails: Disappearing Leptokurtosis," Working papers 2008-48, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Marco Piazza & Andrea Roventini, 2009. "Detrending and the Distributional Properties of U.S. Output Time Series," LEM Papers Series 2009/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "On the Scientific Status of Economic Policy: A Tale of Alternative Paradigms," LEM Papers Series 2008/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Matteo Barigozzi & Lucia Alessi & Marco Capasso & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2008. "The Distribution of Consumption-Expenditure Budget Shares. Evidence from Italian Households," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2008-09, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Schumpeter Meeting Keynes: A Policy-Friendly Model of Endogenous Growth and Business Cycles," LEM Papers Series 2008/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Carolina Castaldi & Giovanni Dosi, 2007. "The patterns of output growth of firms and countries: new evidence on scale invariances and scale specificities," LEM Papers Series 2007/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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