Trade-offs in water policy: System-wide implications of changing water availability and agricultural productivity in the Mediterranean economies by 2050
AbstractWe evaluate the structural consequences of water availability scenarios in the Mediterranean, following a multidisciplinary approach and a sequential modelling methodology. This includes an assessment of future water availability and a general equilibrium macroeconomic analysis of changes in agricultural productivity. Lower productivity in agriculture, induced by reduced water availability, generates negative consequences in terms of real income and welfare. The magnitude of the loss depends on the amount of the productivity shock, but also on the share of agricultural activities in the economy and on the stringency of the environmental regulation. We find evidence of a dramatic cut in the supply of water for agriculture in the Middle East. We consider alternative scenarios, differing in terms of stringency of environmental regulation and assumptions about water efficiency. The largest welfare losses turn out to be in Morocco and Tunisia, in the “worst” scenario NM. Other very relevant impacts can be observed in Turkey, Italy and Rest of Middle East and North Africa (XMENA). There are also clear differences among the scenarios. First, applying a constraint on access to environmental water reserves only for Europe does make a big difference for non-European countries (Morocco, Tunisia and XMENA), implying that governments in the Middle-East could respond to increasing water scarcity by accepting, to some extent, lower environmental quality (deterioration of aquatic environments). Second, improvements in water efficiency, as envisaged in the simulation exercise, appear to curb the economic impact of water scarcity quite significantly. This is especially true for countries in the North, whereas efficiency does not compensate for a strict environmental policy in the South.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari" in its series Working Papers with number 2013:21.
Date of creation: 2013
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Climate change; water use; agriculture; General Equilibrium Models; Mediterranean.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
- Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
- Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-09-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2013-09-06 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-ENV-2013-09-06 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-RES-2013-09-06 (Resource Economics)
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